Washington is considering resuming low-yield nuclear testing, a move that would end a decades-long moratorium and respond to alleged similar activity by China and Russia. The announcement comes as the New START treaty, a key agreement limiting strategic nuclear weapons between the US and Russia, expired earlier this month, and as the Trump administration seeks a new arms control framework that includes China.
The potential shift in US policy was outlined by Christopher Yeaw, the assistant secretary of state for arms control and nonproliferation, at the Hudson Institute on Tuesday. Yeaw stated the US would test on an “equal basis” if China and Russia continue such activities, but clarified this wouldn’t involve the large-scale atmospheric tests of the past. This move underscores a hardening stance towards both nations, particularly China, as the US navigates a changing global security landscape.
Allegations of Secret Explosions
The US has accused China of conducting a low-yield nuclear test in June 2020, citing data from Kazakhstan indicating a 2.75-magnitude explosion. Yeaw maintained that the evidence strongly suggests an explosion, dismissing alternative explanations like earthquakes or mining incidents. However, the claim remains contested. The Center for Strategic and International Studies reported it found no conclusive evidence of an explosion, noting a lack of unusual activity at Lop Nur, China’s primary testing site. Similarly, Robert Floyd, executive secretary of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization, stated his organization did not detect an event consistent with a nuclear weapon test, though their monitoring capabilities have limitations – detecting only explosions equivalent to 500 tonnes of TNT or greater.
The US State Department too alleges that Russia has conducted low-yield nuclear tests, alongside issuing veiled threats regarding the use of nuclear weapons during its invasion of Ukraine. China has vehemently denied the US allegations, calling them “outright lies” and a pretext for the US to restart its own testing program.
New START Expiration and the Push for a Three-Way Treaty
The expiration of New START leaves the US and Russia without a formal treaty limiting their nuclear arsenals for the first time in the 21st century, raising concerns about a potential new arms race. President Trump has repeatedly called for a new agreement that includes China, arguing that a truly effective arms control regime must encompass all major nuclear powers. However, China has so far resisted calls for trilateral negotiations. According to the BBC, this resistance is a major hurdle to a new agreement.
The US last conducted a nuclear test detonation in 1992, but has continued “subcritical” experiments designed to ensure the safety and reliability of its existing stockpile without triggering a nuclear chain reaction. Yeaw criticized the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, which has not come into force, arguing that its inability to detect low-yield tests renders it ineffective. He suggested that those urging ratification “reassess priorities.”
Shifting US Strategy Towards China
This renewed focus on nuclear testing aligns with a broader shift in the Trump administration’s approach to China. A recent national security strategy, as reported by CNN, emphasizes economic competition with China over concerns about authoritarianism and human rights, a departure from previous administrations. President Trump has also expressed disappointment with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the lack of progress in resolving the war in Ukraine, as noted by Al Jazeera.
The administration’s willingness to consider nuclear testing is framed as a response to perceived threats and a determination not to be at a “disadvantage” relative to China and Russia. The decision ultimately rests with President Trump, and the timing of any potential test remains unclear.
The coming months will be critical as the US weighs its options and attempts to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape. Further developments are expected as the administration continues to assess the situation and engage with both China and Russia. The international community will be closely watching for any indication of a renewed nuclear arms race.
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