USD/JPY and GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Insights on Currency and Bitcoin Trends

Currency & Crypto Markets: BoE Rate decision, USD Strength, and BTC Recovery Watch

USD/JPY: The US Dollar/Japanese Yen pair recently paused a four-day upward trend, retreating slightly after approaching the 151.00 level. While the pair has shown improving momentum as July, this pullback introduces uncertainty about the sustainability of the rally. Key levels to watch include the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 147.13, and the 20- and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) around 147.80. A rebound and break above these could signal renewed bullish potential. Conversely, a fall below the 50-day EMA at 146.45 could accelerate losses towards the 144.00-144.40 range.

GBP/USD: Bank of England Rate Expectations

All eyes are on the Bank of England (BoE) this week, with a policy announcement due Thursday. Despite UK inflation remaining close to double the BoE’s 2.0% target, market consensus anticipates a 25 basis-point rate cut to 4.0%, potentially with some dissent among policymakers. The UK economy is showing signs of slowing, with unemployment rising for three consecutive months to a three-year high of 4.7%, adding pressure on the central bank.

The BoE meeting will also include updated economic forecasts.Investors will be scrutinizing the Monetary policy Committee for internal divisions and any shifts in the approach to quantitative tightening, notably in light of new US tariffs and sluggish economic growth.

The British Pound has been weighed down by political uncertainty and weak economic data, despite avoiding meaningful US tariffs. Its limited reaction to recent US employment figures highlights ongoing market caution. While technical indicators suggest the pair is currently oversold,a sustained recovery will likely require a break above the 1.3360 level – the neckline of a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern – followed by a move through the 1.3450-1.3500 resistance area. A breach of May’s support at 1.3135 could open the door to further declines, potentially targeting the 1.3000 level.

BTC/USD: Fed Influence and Technical Signals

Bitcoin mirrored the performance of equity markets last week, declining in response to disappointing US economic data.The cryptocurrency found support near its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $112,000. the focus now is on whether any dovish signals from the Federal Reserve could stimulate bullish momentum through increased liquidity.

Technical indicators offer a glimmer of hope, with the relative Strength Index (RSI) and stochastic oscillator rebounding from oversold conditions. Though, ongoing concerns about economic growth, the impact of tariffs, and the Fed’s independence continue to dampen investor sentiment.

Throughout the week, speeches from Fed officials will be closely monitored for clues about future monetary policy. For BTC/USD to confirm a bullish continuation, it needs to decisively surpass the 20-day SMA and the $117,260 resistance level. Failure to maintain support above $110,750 could lead to further losses, potentially testing the $105,770-$107,500 support zone.

What potential impact could a breakout above the 158.50 resistance level in USD/JPY have on the broader forex market and Bitcoin’s price?

USD/JPY: Navigating a Strengthening Dollar

The USD/JPY pair has been a focal point for forex traders in 2025, largely driven by diverging monetary policies between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Understanding the technical landscape is crucial for predicting future movements.

Key Technical Levels & Chart Patterns

Resistance Levels: Currently, important resistance lies around the 158.00-158.50 area. This zone previously capped upside momentum in late 2024. Breaking above this could signal a continuation of the bullish trend.

Support Levels: Immediate support is found at 155.50, followed by a stronger level at 154.00.A break below 154.00 could initiate a deeper correction.

Chart Patterns: A bullish flag pattern has been developing on the daily chart, suggesting a potential continuation of the uptrend. However, traders shoudl await confirmation with a breakout above the flag’s upper trendline.

moving Averages: The 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) are in a golden cross formation, reinforcing the bullish bias. The price consistently trading above these SMAs indicates strong upward momentum.

Indicators to Watch

Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently hovering around 65, indicating the pair is approaching overbought territory. A pullback could be imminent if the RSI exceeds 70.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD line has crossed above the signal line, confirming the bullish momentum. increasing histogram values suggest strengthening bullish pressure.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels: Key Fibonacci retracement levels to watch include the 38.2% and 61.8% levels, which could act as potential support during pullbacks.

GBP/USD: A Battle Between Bulls and Bears

GBP/USD has experienced increased volatility in recent months, influenced by UK economic data and global risk sentiment. Technical analysis provides valuable insights into potential trading opportunities.

Identifying Key Price Action

Resistance Levels: The 1.2800-1.2850 range presents a significant resistance barrier.Multiple attempts to breach this level have been met with selling pressure.

Support Levels: Strong support is established around the 1.2500 mark, coinciding with a previous swing low. A decisive break below this level could trigger a further decline.

Chart Patterns: A descending triangle pattern has formed on the 4-hour chart, suggesting a potential bearish breakdown. Confirmation is needed with a clear break below the triangle’s lower trendline.

Trendlines: A downward sloping trendline connecting recent highs indicates prevailing bearish sentiment.

Utilizing Technical Indicators

Stochastic Oscillator: the Stochastic Oscillator is currently in oversold territory, potentially signaling a short-term bounce. Though, this should be viewed cautiously within the broader bearish context.

Bollinger Bands: The price is currently trading near the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, suggesting potential for a mean reversion.

Average True Range (ATR): The ATR has been increasing, indicating heightened volatility. Traders should adjust their position sizing accordingly.

the Interplay Between Currencies and Bitcoin

Interestingly, movements in USD/JPY and GBP/USD often correlate with Bitcoin (BTC) price action. A strengthening US dollar typically exerts downward pressure on Bitcoin, while a weakening dollar can provide a boost.

Correlation Analysis

Inverse Correlation (USD/JPY & BTC): Historically, a strong USD/JPY frequently enough coincides with a decline in Bitcoin’s price. This is because Bitcoin is often priced in USD, and a stronger dollar makes it more expensive for international investors.

Complex Relationship (GBP/USD & BTC): The relationship between GBP/USD and Bitcoin is more complex. Risk sentiment plays a significant role. During periods of global uncertainty, both GBP/USD and Bitcoin may experience increased volatility.

* Monitoring the VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as the “fear gauge,” can provide insights into overall market risk appetite.A rising VIX often signals increased risk aversion,potentially benefiting Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset.

Bitcoin Technical Outlook (August 9,20