Venezuela’s Powder Keg: How a Post-Maduro Power Struggle Could Ignite Regional Conflict
The stakes in Venezuela are higher than ever. With Nicolás Maduro removed from power and Delcy Rodríguez now at the helm, the country isn’t entering a period of stability – it’s bracing for a complex and potentially violent power struggle. The situation isn’t simply a change in leadership; it’s a precarious balancing act between competing factions, armed groups, and external pressures, all vying for control of a nation rich in resources and steeped in ideological conflict. Understanding the dynamics at play is crucial, not just for Venezuela’s future, but for regional security and global energy markets.
A Fractured Elite: Civilian vs. Military Interests
Rodríguez’s ascent represents just one piece of a deeply fragmented puzzle. Venezuela’s ruling elite is a fragile alliance between civilian and military factions, both nominally committed to Chavismo, the leftist ideology that defined Hugo Chávez’s rule. Delcy and her brother, Jorge Rodríguez, represent the civilian wing, increasingly pragmatic and open to market-oriented policies. However, their power is counterbalanced by figures like Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López, who command the loyalty of the armed forces.
This isn’t merely a political disagreement. The military, having steadily increased its political and economic weight since Chávez’s death, seeks to maintain control over key industries – oil, gold, food distribution, and even the drug trade – that fuel its power. Any attempt to curtail these interests, particularly in response to external pressure, risks fracturing the already tenuous unity of the Chavista front.
Beyond the Elite: The Rise of Armed Collectives
The power dynamics extend far beyond the official corridors of power. Venezuela is awash in armed “collectivos” – diverse groups ranging from staunch government supporters to those critical of the regime. These groups, often heavily armed and controlling significant territory, represent a wildcard in the unfolding drama. While many are motivated by economic gain, a significant subset retains a fervent anti-imperialist ideology. As one colectivo founder told researchers in 2021, “As long as imperialism exists, armed struggle will always be present because imperialism seeks to destroy the people.”
Recent reports of colectivo harassment of journalists and civilians suggest a willingness to assert their influence, particularly if they perceive the new leadership as betraying Chavista principles by acquiescing to U.S. demands. This potential for violence adds another layer of complexity to an already volatile situation.
The U.S. Factor and the Risk of Escalation
The removal of Maduro, and the subsequent framing of the intervention by the U.S. as a demonstration of power, has significantly raised the stakes. While Delcy Rodríguez may be willing to navigate a pragmatic relationship with Washington to stabilize the economy, hard-line military figures view such accommodation as a public humiliation and a betrayal of Chavista ideals. This perceived affront could trigger a defection within the armed forces, potentially leading to an open rupture.
Such a rupture would likely manifest as an asymmetrical conflict between the Venezuelan armed forces and the U.S., compounded by the involvement of colectivos and other armed groups. Venezuela’s military, despite its economic struggles, remains a formidable force, with roughly 123,000 active personnel, 8,000 reservists, and an additional 200,000-300,000 members in the Bolivarian Militia. This would be a protracted and bloody conflict, extending beyond conventional warfare into guerrilla tactics.
The Shadowy Role of Criminal and Guerrilla Groups
The situation is further complicated by the presence of numerous gangs and criminal organizations, as well as guerrilla groups operating along the Venezuela-Colombia border, such as the ELN and FARC dissidents. These groups, deeply involved in illicit activities like drug trafficking and extortion, have benefited from the instability and lax enforcement under Chavismo. Their primary loyalty lies with preserving their economic interests, and they may remain neutral in a civil-military split, or even exploit the chaos to expand their operations.
However, the Rodríguez siblings could attempt to revive a familiar strategy: negotiating informal agreements with these groups in exchange for maintaining order. While this might offer short-term stability, it would further erode the rule of law and deepen tensions with law enforcement. The police forces, already plagued by corruption and mistrust, are more aligned with the military than the civilian leadership, suggesting they would likely remain loyal to the armed forces in the event of a conflict. Human Rights Watch details the systemic abuses perpetrated by Venezuelan security forces, highlighting the complex dynamics at play.
Navigating the Uncertainty: A Fragile Future
The future of Venezuela hinges on a delicate balance. Can the Chavista elite maintain a fragile unity, or will the competing interests of the civilian and military factions lead to a violent power struggle? Will the U.S. pursue a policy of coercion, further exacerbating the situation, or will it adopt a more nuanced approach that prioritizes dialogue and stability? The answers to these questions will determine whether Venezuela descends into prolonged conflict or embarks on a path towards recovery.
What are your predictions for the future of **Venezuela’s political landscape**? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
