An Israeli bombardment of a solar farm and electricity generation facility in Lebanon on March 4, 2026, underscores a growing, yet largely unacknowledged, dimension of the escalating conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran: its significant and accelerating impact on global climate stability.
The war, now destabilizing vital energy routes, is reshaping economic priorities and diverting attention from long-term climate goals, according to analysts. Key waterways, such as the Strait of Hormuz – through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows – have seen curtailed ship movements due to attacks and increased insurance costs, triggering sharp spikes in oil prices and market volatility.
The linkages between armed conflict and climate change are bidirectional. Wars unleash substantial planet-warming emissions. Russia’s war in Ukraine, for example, generated emissions equivalent to the annual output of France. These emissions exacerbate heat, drought, storms, and other climate impacts, which in turn can destabilize economies and contribute to further conflict, as warned by British intelligence agencies MI5 and MI6 in January.
The current conflict is already prompting a shift back toward fossil fuels as powerful economies seek to stabilize prices and secure energy supplies. This reaction risks locking in higher carbon emissions and slowing progress on decarbonization efforts. The environmental toll of warfare, often overlooked, is substantial. A study from 2024 revealed that the initial four months of the Israel-Gaza conflict produced emissions exceeding the total annual carbon output of 26 countries. When accounting for rebuilding destroyed infrastructure, those emissions surpassed those of over 135 nations, including Sweden, and Portugal.
Similarly, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has resulted in approximately 230 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide over nearly three years of fighting – equivalent to the annual emissions of Austria, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia combined. Specific emissions from a potential large-scale conflict in the Gulf region are now posing a serious risk to global climate stability as of March 2026.
Beyond the direct emissions from military operations, the conflict diminishes opportunities for international cooperation on climate issues. Diplomatic channels are dominated by conflict resolution, reducing consensus-building on critical climate issues like carbon pricing, adaptation financing, and loss and damage. Higher oil prices also ripple across the global economy, driving up costs in transportation, agriculture, and basic goods, with particularly acute impacts on vulnerable nations.
Professor Anjal Prakash from the Indian School of Business indicated that these conflicts divert resources from efforts aimed at reducing carbon emissions and compromise the objectives outlined in the Paris Agreement.
As of March 6, 2026, no formal assessment of the conflict’s climate impact has been released by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
