Gautam Trivedi, co-founder and managing partner of Nepean Capital, stated his firm is currently holding back on new investments amid escalating tensions in West Asia and significant volatility in oil markets. Trivedi cited the intensification of conflict, including reports of sixteen ships downed in the Strait of Hormuz and an attack on Tehran, as key factors influencing the decision.
“No, we are not buying right now. The war seems to have intensified,” Trivedi told ET Now. “Oil hit $122 a barrel and is now down to about $88. But we haven’t seen the end of this war yet, and President Trump’s statement that it will end soon may be premature.”
The crisis, entering its second week as of March 11, 2026, is driving up concerns about global energy supplies. Brent crude has risen 46% since January 1st, reaching $88 a barrel, up from $60. Trivedi highlighted the negative impact on oil-importing nations, specifically naming India, South Korea, and Japan. He also noted the particular vulnerability of countries reliant on Qatari gas supplies.
The economic repercussions are being felt across multiple sectors, Trivedi explained, including oil marketing companies (OMCs), automotive, tires, paints, plastics, fertilizers, aviation, chemicals, and even hospitality, with some restaurants adjusting menus to mitigate gas costs.
Despite a strong February driven by trade deals and returning foreign portfolio investment (FPI), Trivedi indicated a shift in investor sentiment. “We had a great February… But the war has changed things. Year-to-date, we are down 8%, the worst among emerging markets. This doesn’t mean it’s time to buy, but FPIs are favoring other EMs over India,” he said.
Regarding recent policy changes allowing foreign direct investment (FDI) from China, Trivedi acknowledged the potential benefits but cautioned that the specifics would be crucial. “It’s a step in the right direction, but it could create intense competition for local power companies. Chinese products are cheaper, which may help reduce costs but not all companies will benefit,” he explained.
While acknowledging the broader market uncertainty, Trivedi emphasized Nepean Capital’s focus on long-term structural trends, particularly within the power sector, which he described as the fund’s second-highest allocation after banking and finance. He also cited data centers and artificial intelligence as areas of interest.
Trivedi stressed that the firm’s investment strategy centers on identifying and capitalizing on internal changes within companies—such as CEO transitions, ownership shifts, mergers and acquisitions, or subsidiary initial public offerings—rather than relying on thematic investment trends. “We look for incremental changes… We’ve sold some stocks that reached their potential, and that strategy has worked well,” he stated.
He added that portfolio adjustments have been a gradual process over the past year, not a direct response to the current crisis. “This war is right in our neighborhood and impacting the economy. In such times, you can’t react quickly unless you’re a hedge fund. We’re weathering the storm like much of the financial industry, and hopefully, the situation resolves soon,” Trivedi said.
