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The Venezuelan opposition eliminated the “interim government” headed by Juan Guaidó.
The political dispute in Venezuela begins a new stage, in which Juan Guaidó will cease to be the main face of the opposition to President Nicolás Maduro.
A majority of opposition parties voted this Friday for eliminate the “interim government” installed in January 2019 as a response to the alleged illegitimacy of Maduro and headed by Guaidó, who was then the president of the National Assembly (Parliament) elected in 2015 with a majority of the opposition.
The elimination of the “interim government” was approved with 72 votes in favour, 29 once morest and 8 abstentions of former opposition deputies.
The decision fractures the unity of the opposition coalition and dismantles the strategy supported by the United States and most of the Latin American and European countries during the last four years to promote the departure of President Nicolás Maduro, and begins a new stage with the elections. 2024 presidential elections on the horizon.
Guaidó proclaimed himself interim president of Venezuela in January 2019, following disregarding the legitimacy of the May 2018 elections in which Maduro was elected for a second term.
image source, Getty Images
Guaidó proclaimed himself interim president of Venezuela in January 2019.
In those elections the main opposition parties did not participate because they denounced that the conditions were not fair.
In January 2019, with the support of 112 deputies, whose term expired in 2021, Guaidó, a young and unknown parliamentarian from the Voluntad Popular party, offered to pursue three objectives that he repeated like a mantra in speeches and street demonstrations: “Cessation of the usurpation, transitional government and free elections”.
Backed by many countries, which recognized him as the legitimate president, he led a moment of maximum pressure once morest Maduro.
However, that did not translate into a change and the political strategy came to an end this Friday, in a decision that will be executed through a reform to the statute that governs the so-called Transition to Democracy to Restore the Validity of the Constitution.
“The political fact of eliminating a constitutional tool does not put us in a better position“Guaidó said following the vote. “Today Venezuela loses and celebrates the dictatorship. To annul the presidency in charge of Venezuela is to take a leap into the void.”
“Who is then going to assume the powers, with name and surname, before the Venezuelans?” he questioned. “I have done it for four years with haughtiness, in parliamentary governance“, he assured.
At BBC Mundo we explain what the end of Guaidó’s “interim government” means, what he achieved and what he failed to do, if it benefits Maduro, and what the prospects for the opposition will be in 2023, the year in which primaries are scheduled to elect the candidate who will face Maduro in the 2024 presidential elections.
What does the end of Guaidó’s “interim government” mean?
The “interim government” unified the opposition forces around a line of action that was recognized by the US and most Latin American and European countries, although many of them later withdrew their support.
This support allowed the opposition to access important public resources abroad, such as control of Citgo, a subsidiary of the state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela in the United States, and obtain a favorable ruling in the London High Court, which recognized Guaidó’s legitimacy. and handed over control over US$2 billion in gold held at the Bank of England in the name of the Central Bank of Venezuela.
However, the so-called commissioned presidency failed to remove Maduro from powercall free elections or exercise real power within Venezuela.
“The end of the interim government means the closure of a political cycle for the opposition. The strategy of pressure and internal collapse comes to an end,” the Venezuelan sociologist Juan Manuel Trak, a doctor in Contemporary Political Processes from the University, told BBC Mundo from Salamanca (Spain).
Trak believes that the opposition parties were inhibited in the past from confronting Guaidó for fear of losing the international support won by his party, Voluntad Popular.
Margarita López Maya, a Venezuelan historian and political analyst, believes that the change in current strategy “had to happen because it ran out of steam and lost popularity.”
“Guaidó has already had a long time to have shown that he might be a leader of the entire opposition. And he never was,” said López Maya, who assured that “he has always been a follower of the leadership of Leopoldo López”, founder and coordinator of Popular Will.
Important opposition leaders such as Henrique Capriles, López’s rival, a two-time presidential candidate and who is politically disabled, had already expressed in the past their rejection of the continuation of the presidency in charge.
“If there is one thing I might say to those who have the responsibility to make a decision, it is that don’t be blackmailedenough of that way of life“Capriles said recently.
image source, Getty Images
Former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles distanced himself from Juan Guaidó.
Analysts believe that the lack of a clear electoral strategy, attempts to oust Maduro from power (such as the April 30, 2019 insurrection and Operation Gideon in May 2020), and internal opposition corruption scandals have eroded the credibility of the so-called commissioned presidency.
“The interim government, instead of settling as a symbolic figure, ended up becoming a bureaucratic structure that has a budget, personnel, ambassadors, commissions, managers,” Trak explained.
“Only in March of this year, the security and defense of democracy program that is in the budget of the interim government had US$35 million. Then they approved another budget of US$50 million. And one wonders where that money goes and to whom That money goes,” he questioned.
“There have been extremely serious allegations of corruption. one has to see this [la eliminación de la presidencia encargada] as something that was foreseeable,” warned López Maya.
How is Maduro?
After months of diplomatic pressure and on the streets of Venezuela, Maduro managed to overcome the worst moment.
Over time, the so-called “Guaidó effect” was diluted and the president consolidated his position and lately there have even been rapprochements with the United States, which was at first the great supporter of the opposition leader.
For this reason, Juan Manuel Trak considers that the disappearance of the “interim government” is “irrelevant” for Maduro.
“With or without an interim government, Maduro remains in power. With or without an interim government, he does not lose his strength,” said the sociologist.
“The existence of the interim government has not diminished its power at any time and has allowed it to consolidate, through more authoritarian practices, what it already had,” he opined.
image source, Getty Images
Guaidó and the opposition ignored the legitimacy of the election of Nicolás Maduro for a second term.
Although Trak believes that the personal safety of Guaidó may be at risk by losing international recognitionwarns that “the risk that the opposition runs by eliminating the interim government is the same as it runs by not eliminating it, that is, remaining fragmented in an increasingly bitter dispute.”
“For Maduro, the only advantage is that the opposition continues to discredit itself,” Trak says.
What’s next for the opposition now
By removing Guaidó, the opposition has raised create a commission dedicated to protecting the assets of the Venezuelan State abroad that are in the power of the so-called presidency in charge.
“The elimination of the entire interim government is proposed, with the exception of three instances necessary for the defense of assets: the board to this of Pdvsa Holding, the board to this of the BCV (Central Bank of Venezuela) and an executive commission that expands its functions not only to manage expenses, but also to represent and defend assets,” proposed Alfonso Marquina, one of the opposition leaders.
“The AN (National Assembly) will be maintained only to legislate on all matters related to the protection and defense of assets abroad,” he added.
But the focus will be on the primaries scheduled for 2023.
Analysts regret that the Venezuelan opposition coalition will arrive divided and in conflict at these primaries, from which the candidate who will face Chavismo in the 2024 presidential elections must come out.
“For the opposition comes more polarization. We are going to see greater fragmentation, the fight will be to the death because Voluntad Popular will assume this decision as a betrayal and they will accuse anyone who does not support Juan Guaidó of being ‘sold out’,” predicts Juan Manuel Trak.
López Maya, for his part, warns that beyond the internecine wars of the opposition, the biggest challenge is going to elections under a government that he describes as “authoritarian.”
“I’m pretty sure that there is no way to reach an election with reasonable conditions. The problem in Venezuela is so serious, it has reached such levels, that the solution is not in the short or medium term. The elections have to be seen as a step in a longer-range strategy.”
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