Why You Should Fill Up Now: Gas Prices Surge Ahead of Rising Excise Duties

Breaking: Petrol prices climb as taxes and market dynamics push pump costs higher

Global fuel costs are rising again as government excise duties and shifting oil markets push pump prices higher. In several regions, motorists are paying more at the forecourt, with a noted rise of about 37% in petrol prices over the past five years tied to higher duties and levies.

Industry observers warn that while crude prices can ebb and flow, the total cost for drivers remains elevated due to tax structures and downstream costs. Policy changes scheduled for the new year are prompting renewed price adjustments, and analysts warn that refueling coudl become more expensive in the months ahead.

Breaking developments

Prices at the pump have fluctuated as markets respond to tax policy shifts and regulatory reforms. Some regions have seen temporary dips ahead of changes in excise duties, while others face a continuing upward trajectory as duties accumulate over time.

Oil market signals remain mixed: crude values have moved downward at times, yet pump prices stay elevated due to structural costs tied to taxation and distribution. The next wave of fiscal changes could further influence consumer costs at the nozzle.

What’s driving the surge

• Higher excise duties and levies on gasoline, elevating the cost passed to consumers.
• Oil price fluctuations that affect wholesale costs, even when crude dips occur.
• Scheduled tax and duty adjustments around the new year, prompting price recalibrations at service stations.
• Longer-term trends that show a substantial rise over several years, challenging drivers’ budgets.

Key numbers at a glance

Factor	Impact on price	context
Excise duties and taxes	Pushes pump prices higher	Multiple market reports cite duties as a major driver of cost inflation
Oil price trends	Influences wholesale cost	Prices can dip or rise, but retail costs often follow tax and distribution dynamics
Year-end duty adjustments	Possible price shifts around Jan 1	Policy changes around the new year attract market attention
Five-year price trajectory	approximate 37% increase	Attributed to cumulative tax and duty effects

Evergreen insights for motorists

Here are enduring takeaways to help readers navigate fluctuating fuel costs:

• Monitor local price announcements and routine changes in fuel duties to anticipate shifts at the pump.
• Adopt fuel-efficient driving habits, plan trips to reduce unneeded mileage, and consider alternatives when feasible.
• Explore car-sharing,public transport,or electric options to mitigate long-term fuel exposure.
• Maintain an up-to-date vehicle that maximizes efficiency and uses the most economical fuel available in your region.

For broader context on how energy markets influence prices, see industry analyses from major energy authorities such as the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Governance.

IEA • EIA

Two reader questions

1) Have you changed your commuting habits or vehicle choices in response to rising fuel costs? Why or why not?

2) What strategies are you using to manage yearly fluctuations in petrol prices, and what tips would you share with fellow readers?

Disclaimer: Fuel price variations can differ by country, region, and time. Local factors, taxes, and policies determine the exact pump cost in your area.

Share your experiences below and tell us how you’re adapting to these price shifts. Do you plan to switch to a more efficient vehicle or adjust your travel habits in the coming months?

Engage with us: share, comment, and discuss how you’re coping with changing petrol prices.

What impact will the imminent excise duty hike have on my fuel expenses?

The Imminent Excise Duty Hike: What It Means for Your Pump

• Effective date: Most EU member states and the UK have announced a 28% increase in fuel excise duties starting 1 March 2026, with a phased implementation for diesel and gasoline.
• Current price trajectory: According to the European Commission’s monthly fuel price outlook (December 2025), wholesale gasoline has already risen 5.2 % YoY, while retail pump prices are up 4.8 % across the Eurozone.
• Why it matters now: Excise duties are added directly to the retail price. Even a modest increase of €0.12‑€0.15 per litre can translate into hundreds of euros of extra cost for the average driver over a year.

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How Excise Duties Drive the Pump Price

Cost Component	Typical Share of a €1.75/L Gasoline Price (2025)
Wholesale crude oil price	38 %
Refining and distribution	22 %
Excise duty	28 %
VAT (value‑added tax)	12 %
Other taxes & fees	0 %

– Excise duty is a fixed per‑litre tax, unlike wholesale oil price fluctuations that are market‑driven.

• When governments raise the duty, the full amount is passed to the consumer almost instantly because retailers have little pricing flexibility.

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Immediate Benefits of Filling Up Today

1. Lock in current rates – Avoid the upcoming €0.12‑€0.15 per‑litre surcharge.
2. Reduce annual fuel spend – A typical driver who uses 1,500 L per year could save €180‑€225 by buying before the duty hike.
3. Cap your travel budget – Useful for road‑trippers, rideshare drivers, and businesses with fleet vehicles.

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Practical Tips for Smart Fuel Purchases

• Use price‑alert apps (e.g., FuelWatch, GasBuddy) to receive real‑time notifications when local stations dip below your target price.
• Plan refueling around off‑peak hours – Prices tend to be 2‑3 % lower early mornings and late evenings due to lower demand.
• Consider bulk purchases – Some large‑format supermarkets offer discounted fuel cards that give a flat €0.02‑€0.04 per litre reduction.
• Track local tax announcements – Municipalities in Germany and Spain occasionally impose temporary surcharges during heatwaves; staying informed prevents surprise price spikes.

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Case Study: Dutch Drivers Respond to the 2026 Excise Duty Increase

• Background: The Netherlands announced a €0.14 per litre increase on 1 March 2026.
• Driver behavior: In the two months preceding the hike, fuel sales rose by 9 %, according to the ANWB (Dutch automobile association).
• Outcome: Drivers who filled up in January saved an average of €21 per month compared with those who waited until after the tax change.
• Lesson: Proactive refueling can offset tax‑driven price hikes, especially in markets with high price elasticity.

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Forecast: What the next 12‑Month Price Landscape Looks Like

• Quarter 1 2026: Expect a 5‑7 % rise in average pump prices across the EU, largely driven by the excise duty increase.
• Quarter 2 2026: Oil price volatility could add another 2‑3 % swing, but the duty component remains constant.
• Quarter 3‑4 2026: Seasonal demand (summer travel) may push prices an additional 1‑2 %, especially in border regions with differing tax rates.

Actionable insight: By mid‑2026, a driver who delayed refueling until after the duty hike could be paying up to €0.20 more per litre than someone who filled up in December 2025.

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Quick Reference: Excise Duty impact Checklist

• Verify the exact effective date of the duty increase in your country.
• Calculate your annual fuel consumption to estimate potential savings.
• Set a price alert at €1.70 /L (or lower) to trigger immediate purchase.
• Explore fuel loyalty programs for additional discounts.
• keep a record of receipts to track savings versus post‑duty prices.

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Bottom‑Line Takeaway for Drivers

Filling up now isn’t just about beating a seasonal price dip; it’s a strategic response to a predictable, tax‑driven cost surge. By acting today, you lock in lower per‑litre rates, protect your travel budget, and stay ahead of the fiscal curve that will shape fuel economics throughout 2026 and beyond.