Will the next ten years be a window for the U.S. military?Taiwan experts say Wutong is as easy as eating tofu | Blog Post

Recently, the situation in the Taiwan Strait has been tense, and US President Biden has repeatedly expressed his position to help defend Taiwan. Su Qi, former secretary-general of the Taiwan Security Council and chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council, compiled 56 reports from the US government, think tanks and scholars, and believes that the next five to ten years will be an empty window for the transformation of the US military, and at the same time, it will be the “reform of Beijing’s military system”. “Window of Opportunity”, and occupying Taiwan will be as easy as eating tofu.

Su Qi, Secretary General of the Taiwan Security Council and Chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council. Associated Press photo.

The Taipei Forum Foundation held a lecture on “What is the U.S.’s Ability to Protect Taiwan? – See What the Americans Say”. Su Qi quoted the Acting Secretary of Defense of the United States, an official report from the Pentagon, and former senior officials as saying at the meeting, saying that the People’s Liberation Army The current military dominance in East Asia, coupled with the geographic distance of US aid to Taiwan, make it difficult for the US to prevent Beijing from constructing a new “fait accompli” (fait accompli) in the Taiwan Strait. In other words, once Taiwan changes, it will be difficult for Washington to reverse it militarily and politically.

Su Qi said that the next five to ten years will be an empty window for the transformation of the U.S. military. On the one hand, the United States will eliminate 48 warships and 256 fighter jets of age by 2026; The counter-force was prepared before, which further weakened its ability to “protect Taiwan”.

In contrast, the PLA’s military power is growing rapidly, and the Dongfeng series of missiles have already posed a huge threat to the US aircraft carrier, especially the Hypersonic Missile, which is extremely penetrating and destructive. He cited the writings of Hengshu Yoshihara, a senior researcher at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment, a Washington think tank, stating that a single hypersonic missile without any explosive warheads can sink an aircraft carrier with the force of impact.

PLA hypersonic missile. online pictures.

At the same time, the People’s Liberation Army has established a sophisticated “C4ISR” system in the Pacific Ocean. As the most accurate early warning and response system in the world, the United States has not been able to operate a similar system in the region. Worrying.

Su Qi said frankly that even though the U.S. military is known as the world’s largest, it can currently only take care of one large regional conflict and several small contacts. To put it simply, the U.S. military already lacks sufficient strength to handle two large-scale conflicts at the same time. He revealed that according to the past 18 closed-door wargames conducted by the Pentagon, unless the U.S. military uses nuclear weapons, once it engages with the People’s Liberation Army, no matter what the combat scenario is, it will fail. defeat.

In response to Beijing’s military system, Su Qi believes that the PLA is most likely to resort to surprise attacks and fights. He emphasized that the amphibious landing is already an old-fashioned idea. The new idea is to attack Taiwan from the air, and then make a large-scale landing following parachuting or landing from a helicopter. Some scholars even estimate that the PLA will be able to take Taiwan “within three days.”

Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party. Tsai Ing-wen FB picture.

Su Qi said that in 2000, Taiwan was able to protect itself alone without the assistance of the United States; in 2008, the People’s Liberation Army had the ability to attack Taiwan with firepower and partial blockade, and in 2015, it was able to completely block it; from 2008 to 2015, it was able to attack Taiwan and U.S. mainland network and important facilities; in 2018, the People’s Liberation Army has been able to take military command at any time, and the first wave of troops can reach 25,000 people. Even if Taiwan has “asymmetrical combat power”, it is no longer able to fight the PLA alone.

As for the combat capability of the Taiwanese army, Su Qi cited a July 2021 report by the Washington think tank “Defense Priorities”, saying that Taiwan’s military strength appears to be 2 million, but they are all “pure” Illusory” troops. He bluntly said that “occupying” Taiwan was “as easy as eating tofu” for the PLA.