with the approach of deconfinement, epidemiological indicators still in the red

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The deconfinement plan announced Thursday, April 29 by the President of the Republic reflects the epidemic situation: very uncertain. In an interview with several titles in the regional daily press, Emmanuel Macron pledged to authorize the reopening of café terraces, museums and theaters from May 19, while shifting the curfew to 9 p.m. . However, the lifting of the restrictions may be delayed in the event of “Degraded departmental health situation”, he warned.

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Almost a month after the start of the third confinement, the epidemiological indicators are still all in the red. At the national level, the incidence rate of Covid-19 exceeds 300 cases per week per 100,000 inhabitants, well beyond the alert threshold, at 50 cases per 100,000, and the low point reached after the second confinement , to 100 cases per 100,000. Two weeks from the start of deconfinement, nearly 6,000 people are still hospitalized in intensive care, and Public Health France recorded an average of 30,000 new infections per day last week.

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During his address to the French on November 24, 2020, the President of the Republic had set himself the objective of reaching 5,000 contaminations per day and around 2,500 to 3,000 people in intensive care to get out of the second confinement in mid-December. The first objective was never reached, and the braking measures were lifted when there were still nearly 20,000 cases per day. On May 11, at the end of the first confinement, scientists estimate that there were between 1,000 and 2,000 daily contaminations, and by May 18, 2020, the number of patients in intensive care had fallen below the threshold of 2,000 .

Exit doors

“Even if the confinement was extended, this objective would not be reached before the beginning of July, and mid-June 3,000 patients would still be hospitalized in critical care”, estimates Mircea Sofonea, epidemiologist at the University of Montpellier. The 2021 version calendar therefore has nothing to do with that of 2020. “These levels of incidence and hospital occupancy would never have given rise to such optimism in the calendar”, continues the researcher, recalling that the measures are lifted much faster than last year.

Travel restrictions will end on May 3, when a year ago, the limit was 100 kilometers around the home. And primary school students returned to class on April 26, when in 2020 it was necessary to wait until June 22 for schools to welcome all students again. “The decline will be much slower in the services under pressure, which also delays the management of other pathologies”, regrets the scientist, depending on who we are “In a form of stalemate”.

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