The NET Ranking Revolution: How Schedule Strength is Rewriting the Women’s College Basketball Narrative
Forget simply counting wins and losses. In women’s college basketball, the path to March Madness is increasingly defined by who you beat, and – crucially – where you beat them. The NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, now a cornerstone of tournament selection, are forcing teams to prioritize quality over quantity, and the early season results are already revealing some surprising truths.
Beyond the Top 25: Understanding the Quad System
The NET isn’t just a ranking; it’s a complex algorithm that weighs game results against strength of schedule, location (home, away, neutral), and offensive/defensive efficiency. This is broken down into four quadrants: Quad 1 representing the strongest opponents, Quad 2 slightly less so, and so on down to Quad 4. A win over a Quad 1 team on the road carries significantly more weight than a win over a Quad 4 team at home. This system, as the NCAA explains, aims to provide a more holistic view of a team’s resume.
UConn and Michigan: A Tale of Two Approaches
Currently, UConn holds the top spot in the NET rankings, and for good reason. The Huskies aren’t just winning; they’re dominating tough competition, including a road victory over USC, and boasting a schedule packed with Quad 1 and 2 opponents. Contrast this with Michigan, currently ranked fourth. While also successful, the Wolverines have benefited from a comparatively weaker schedule, with fewer opportunities to prove themselves against elite teams. This highlights a key trend: simply racking up wins isn’t enough. Teams need to actively seek out challenging matchups to bolster their NET ranking.
The Schedule Strength Paradox
We’re seeing a fascinating paradox emerge. Undefeated teams like TCU (ranked 8th) are benefiting from a lack of losses, but their reliance on Quad 4 victories is raising questions about their true championship potential. Similarly, Maryland (9th) has an impressive record, but a significant portion of their games have been played at home against less formidable opponents. This isn’t to diminish their accomplishments, but rather to illustrate how the NET prioritizes the quality of competition.
Bubble Watch: The Tightrope Walk to March
The teams ranked between 64 and 73 in the NET rankings – the “bubble” teams – are under immense pressure. A single loss to a lower-quadrant opponent can be devastating, while a road win against a Quad 1 team can be a season-saver. Penn State (73rd) and Kansas State (72nd) are prime examples of teams teetering on the edge, needing to consistently prove themselves against top competition. The NET forces these teams to be strategic about their scheduling and to maximize every opportunity for a quality win.
Looking Ahead: The Rise of Data-Driven Scheduling
The increasing importance of the NET rankings is likely to lead to a more data-driven approach to scheduling in women’s college basketball. Coaches will be under increasing pressure to prioritize games against high-NET-ranked opponents, even if it means taking on more risk. We can expect to see more neutral-site matchups and a greater emphasis on road games, as these provide the biggest boost to a team’s NET ranking. The era of padding a record with easy wins is coming to an end.
The Impact on Mid-Major Conferences
This shift also has implications for mid-major conferences. Teams from these conferences will need to be even more strategic in their scheduling, seeking out opportunities to play against power conference opponents to improve their NET ranking and increase their chances of earning an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. Winning a conference championship guarantees a tournament berth, but a strong NET ranking can open doors for multiple teams from a single conference.
The NET rankings are more than just numbers; they’re a reflection of a changing landscape in women’s college basketball. The emphasis on schedule strength is forcing teams to be more competitive, more strategic, and more focused on building a resume that truly reflects their potential. As we move closer to March Madness, the NET will continue to shape the narrative and determine which teams will have the opportunity to compete for a national championship. What impact will these rankings have on your bracket predictions? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
