The US and Russia leaders met in Switzerland in June last yearIf the Russian invasion of Ukraine becomes a reality, there are speculations that it will be a big political blow to US President Joe Biden.
This is because President Biden himself, who was trying to prevent the invasion of Ukraine somehow, is shaking not only because of the reason that a significant negative effect is inevitable for the United States as well.
On the other hand, if the crisis is successfully overcome, the situation in Ukraine is expected to act as a ‘double-edged sword’ for President Biden, such as making up for diplomatic mistakes and providing an opportunity for a rebound in approval ratings.
If the Ukraine war breaks out, President Biden’s immediate diplomatic efforts to prevent Russian provocations and reduce tensions will be in vain.
Ukrainian 79-year-old woman trains to prepare for Russian invasion▶ Click here for a larger view
Since Biden took office in January last year, he has promised to restore the US leadership in the international community.
This is expected to further reinforce the Republican Party’s argument, which has criticized Biden’s leadership as weak.
In fact, former President Donald Trump, who does not hide his intention to run for the next presidency, recently pointed out that he had recently implemented the toughest policy against Russia, and aimed directly at Biden, if he had been re-elected, the Ukraine crisis would not have happened.
There are also concerns that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will undermine the principles of democracy and sovereignty that the United States has built up for decades in foreign policy, further exacerbating other adversaries’ challenges and threats.
CNN reported on the 14th (local time) that there is a possibility that China could take more daring actions against Taiwan, which it considers its territory.
In addition, how strong and effective the West, including the US, will respond to Russia may affect the behavior of Iran and North Korea.
The United States is in the process of negotiating with Iran to restore the nuclear deal, which was signed during the Barack Obama administration but was torn down by the Trump administration, but has not been able to find a solution. North Korea is gradually increasing the level of pressure on the US as it conducts a series of ballistic missile tests in the new year.
US-made Stinger missiles airlifted to Ukraine▶ Click here for a larger view
Above all, in the event of the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, there is a possibility that it will have a direct impact on the U.S. economy, including oil prices and stock prices.
With the US price rising 7.5% last month, the highest since February 1982, due to the aftermath of the novel coronavirus infection, if oil prices rise further, Biden is highly likely to be in a predicament. CNN said oil prices often functioned as an indicator of US voter anger.
The US stock market is also sensitive to the situation in Ukraine, so a big shock is inevitable if the situation worsens.
If such a scenario materializes, the pessimism of the Democrats could grow amid speculation that the Republican Party is highly likely to retake power in Congress during the November midterm elections due to the already declining approval rating of President Biden.
On the other hand, if a situation in which Russia withdraws its troops without a military invasion develops, it is expected to act as a positive for Biden.
This is because it will be an opportunity to make up for the diplomatic disaster that occurred during the chaotic withdrawal process of Afghanistan last year and to confirm President Biden’s promise to rally the alliance and secure the leadership of the United States, as represented by the phrase ‘the United States is back’.
“Even if Russia does not invade all-out, it is unlikely to ease pressure on Ukraine,” CNN reported.
Russian tanks training for artillery fire in ‘Ukraine crisis’▶ Click here for a larger view
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