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Coffee prices have been soaring for a year. The unfavorable weather conditions in Brazil and the rise in freight prices are the main factors behind this surge.
2021 was a year of great vintage for coffee, especially for arabica, the best-selling variety in the world, it represents 70% of world production. Its price has increased by 75% in one year, a trend which should continue in 2022: this surge is mainly due to the drop in supply.
In Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter, production of arabica fell 24.4% last year due to drought at the start of the year followed by a historic frost in July. To this is added the negative biennial agronomic cycle of the variety, whose plants alternate a year of good productivity then a year of lower yields. Due to heavy rains, the harvest was also poor in Colombia, the third largest producer in the world. In addition to the vagaries of the weather, there are soaring transport prices, combined with a shortage of containers which is blocking certain arrivals.
Rising prices, a breath of fresh air for small producers
Opposite, demand remains solid. But a lower supply than demand inevitably causes a sharp increase in this agricultural raw material on the markets. This price increase is a breath of fresh air for small producers, who have suffered from very low prices in recent years. Most of them even worked at a loss.
However, according to Florent Gout, expert in the coffee sector, “small producers are not going to reap windfall profits, insofar as current prices just allow them to regain equilibrium. Prices are indeed approaching those of 2011, and small farms will therefore be able to cover the costs of their production. ».
As for the final consumer, he will pay the consequences. According to Gout, in the coming months, the kilo of coffee bought in France should increase by 2 to 3 euros in groceries, between 2 and 3 cents per cup of espresso coffee.
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