March 1, 2022

First talks took place on Monday between Moscow and Kiev. The results are inconclusive so far, however, and that hasn’t stopped the fighting from continuing and intensifying as Russia continues its offensive in Ukraine.

Negotiations began at the border with Belarus, and the two sides then returned for “consultations in their respective capitals”. According to the Russian chief negotiator, Vladimir Medinski, the participants agreed on a new meeting “soon” on the Polish-Belarusian border. The content of the discussions has not been made public.

Vladimir Putin nevertheless recalled his conditions shortly following during an exchange with his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, current president of the European Union. The leader is calling for the recognition of Crimea as Russian territory, a “neutral status” for Kiev and the “denazification” of Ukraine, a loaded term that many observers struggle to grasp and which seems to imply a change of political regime.

A settlement “is only possible if Russia’s legitimate security interests are unconditionally taken into account”, the Kremlin repeated following their conversation. Ukraine, for its part, demanded a ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian troops.

“For the moment, the demands seem irreconcilable”, drops Magdalena Dembinska, professor of political science at the University of Montreal.

She doubts that the conflict will be resolved through negotiation and she sees no settlement on the horizon. “I don’t see how Ukraine might accept the claims that are on the negotiating table,” she said. It is difficult to see how a compromise negotiated in the next few days might satisfy Mr. Putin on the one hand and the Ukrainian people on the other. She adds that during the negotiations that led to the signing of the Minsk agreements in 2015, several ceasefires were not respected.

“The general objectives of the Russian operation are not very clear,” notes Guillaume Grégoire-Sauvé, expert on Russia and guest researcher at the Center for International Studies and Research at the University of Montreal (CERIUM). .

He advances the hypothesis that the Russian leader is asking for more than he really expects. “What is a negotiating position, what is sham, you can’t really know as the content of the negotiations is not public,” he said. Negotiations are also driven by the military situation on the ground, he adds.

The fighting continues

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday called on Russian soldiers to “drop [leurs] weapons” to “save [leur] life”, but this warlike rhetoric did not prevent the army from continuing its bombardments and its advance.

On Monday evening, a huge convoy of Russian armor nearly 65 km long was advancing towards Kiev, according to satellite images. On the ground, the Ukrainian army said during the day that it had repelled several attempts by Russian forces to storm the outskirts of the capital.

The curfew was lifted on Monday morning, and the Russian forces are eagerly awaited by a mobilized population. “We will welcome them with Molotov cocktails and bullets in the head, that’s how we will welcome them,” said Viktor Rudnichenko, a bank employee.

The landscape of the Ukrainian capital has changed. Trenches were dug, makeshift barricades were erected in the streets to halt the advancing Russian tanks, and checkpoints were set up.

The start of the talks also coincided with intense fighting in Kharkiv, the country’s second largest city on the border with Russia. At least 11 civilians were killed in Russian shelling of residential areas, the regional governor reported.

Far from being bogged down and superior militarily, especially in the air, Russian forces have “great freedom of movement” across Ukraine, and satellite images show long columns of vehicles in the open, suggesting that ” they remain confident in their own positions and in Ukraine’s inability” to confront them, observes Nick Brown of Janes, a British defense research centre.

The placing of nuclear forces on alert by Vladimir Putin on Sunday was received with concern and awakened old demons. The United States, however, said Monday that it had detected no “concrete” change in Russia’s nuclear posture.

Desire to join the European Union

Russia had to defend the invasion of Ukraine on Monday at the UN General Assembly during an emergency special session of its 193 members, who for their part multiplied calls to end the war, judged “senseless”.

A photo of the Ukrainian president signing a document asking to join the European Union (EU) circulated during the day on social networks. “We are addressing the EU regarding an immediate integration of Ukraine via a new special procedure,” Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video. “I’m sure that’s right. I’m sure it’s possible,” he said.

This procedure does not exist as such, and integration into the EU is usually a process that stretches over several years and requires complex negotiations. It also requires the unanimous endorsement of the 27 member countries.

The European Parliament will vote on Tuesday on a draft resolution, supported by all but one of the political groups, which will call for Ukraine to be a candidate to join the EU. “It’s a scenario that was impossible a month ago, but in the current enthusiasm for solidarity, it is not impossible for Europeans to open the door to Ukraine”, explains Frédéric Mérand, scientific director of CERIUM .

He adds that Hungary is the only country that might put a spoke in Ukraine’s wheels, since Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has privileged relations with Vladimir Putin.

More than 500,000 people have left Ukraine to take refuge in several neighboring countries since the start of the Russian offensive on Thursday, according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.

With Agence France-Presse

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