September 12, 2023

In order to make fresh dollars In a context of scarcity, the Government launched a new edition of the Soy Dollar through which More than a million tons have already been liquidated in the first week of validity.

He Export Increase Program (PIE) V, made official by decree, offers agricultural exporters the possibility of liquidating 75% in the official dollar ($350) and the remaining 25% freely available. That is, through the MEP dollar or cash with settlement. This combination results in a differential exchange rate of approximately $440.

Fiscal balance: a point of agreement between the main candidates for president

Soybean dollar: how much have exporters settled

From the Ministry of Economy, they estimate that the soybean complex might liquidate USD 2 billion until the end of September. During the first five business days of the new measure, The field totaled revenues of USD 317 millionaccording to financial analyst Gustavo Quintana.

In terms of quantities, the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) reported that 1,124,806 tons were liquidated since the entry into force of the new PIE. At the same time, the Rosario institution calculated that there would remain to be marketed just under 5 million tons of soybeans of the 2022/23 campaign.

“In terms of marketing, We are above the April and May program but in terms of settlements, it is not taking off“, evaluated the economic consultant Salvador Vitelli in dialogue with PROFILE.

And he explained: “What is sold is not necessarily settled on the same day. It is not linear but there may be a day where much more is settled. And that is why perhaps we are still waiting for it to reflect the traded volume of one million tons. “.

When comparing it with previous versions, Vitelli assured that “this edition only shows a slight improvement in tons compared to the April/May one.” “If we had to put together a ranking, in first place is the Soybean Dollar I, second is the Soybean Dollar II, third is the current one, and fourth is the Soybean Dollar III.“, he listed.

The caution of producers regarding the soybean dollar

For the economist Ariel Tejerathis measure “brought some dynamism to the soybean market, which was practically paralyzed” but “supply has a hard time meeting demand“.

“We are in a context where producers show great caution when closing businesses and only do so to cover specific financial needs. The uncertainty generated by the possible change of government, the absence of investment opportunities and the fragility of the markets exchange, limit the appeal to closing sales“he noted.

Uncertainty grows in the markets ahead of the next elections

At the same time, Tejera highlighted that soybeans “are the producer’s savings currency” and, in terms of prices, the PIE V “promoted an important recovery in the values ​​of the local square“.

For his part, the professor and researcher at the Agribusiness and Food Center of the Austral University, Roman Dantethe application of the Soybean Dollar IV raises doubts regarding the price that should be paid “It is very difficult to calculate“.

“In addition to the industry, bean exports came in, and the improvement in the exchange rate is on the FOB – which is not so clear – and, then, we must deduct export/grinding costs, which are not simple,” he indicated. in a report.

Double-digit inflation will persist until the October elections

At the same time, the specialist highlighted that “producers know that exports have something extra to improve their margin, they retract their supply and raise prices; and international buyers make the same reasoning: they reduce their sales and export prices go down.This causes the industry’s margins to fall.”, he noted.

The BCRA buys foreign currency but does not impact reserves

He Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) It combined 21 consecutive days with purchases in the Single and Free Exchange Market (MULC). So far in September, the monetary authority has made USD 315 million.

However, and despite the greater liquidation of the agribusiness by PIE V, the purchasing balance of the BCRA is not reflected in the level of gross reserves, which closed at USD 27,765 million and shows a retraction of USD 55 million in the month .

MFN / Gi