2024 Budget Deficit: Analysis and Trends in Public Finances

2024-03-01 11:04:31

After concluding the year 2023 on a much better note than expected, with a budget deficit which was reduced to 62 billion dirhams, public finances are starting 2024 in the red zone. At the end of January, and according to the latest data from the Ministry of Finance, the budget deficit stood at 1.7 billion dirhams, compared to a surplus of 516 million dirhams a year earlier, an increase of some 2.2 billion. of dirhams. Overall, budgetary expenditure, which peaked after one month at nearly 29 billion dirhams, grew faster than revenues which reached 27.2 billion dirhams: the former increased by 16.5%, while the latter increased by ” only » 7.3%. Hence the widening deficit.

The increase in expenses is essentially driven by two elements: personnel expenses and compensation expenses. For the former, they reached 12 billion dirhams at the end of January, up 7.7% compared to January 2023, a difference of almost a billion dirhams. A progression which follows in the wake of the agreements concluded between the government and the unions, in particular in the education and health sectors.

More surprisingly, compensation spending recorded a double-digit increase at the start of the year. At the end of January, they amounted to 3.2 billion dirhams, an increase of 25%, or more than 640 million dirhams. An increase attributed to the subsidy of 500 million dirhams granted by the government to professionals in the transport sector so that they maintain the prices of their services. Because at the same time, the charge for butane gas showed stagnation at around 1.6 billion dirhams.

Debt interest remains stable
The other major expenditure item in stagnation is that of debt interest, the expenses of which stood at 1.3 billion dirhams, a very slight decrease of -1.7% compared to January 2023. For this which is investment expenditure, they remain at a high level, with already 12.3 billion dirhams, or the same level as in January 2023.

On the revenue side, we highlight the good start of tax revenues which increased by 5.3%. Corporate tax (IS) increased by 4.3%. For registration and stamp duties, revenues are trending well with an increase of 9.6%. VAT revenue, one of the main tax revenues of the State Budget, is also trending well, recording an increase of 8.5%, a differential of 670 million dirhams compared to last year. thanks to the very good behavior of internal VAT, whose revenues jumped by 19% to exceed 4.3 billion dirhams. Note that the Treasury’s financing requirement, estimated at more than 11 billion dirhams, was largely covered by recourse to the domestic market.

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