2023-10-24 19:48:09
How did Week 7 of the NFL schedule shake up the possible 2024 NFL Draft order?
To get an update on where things stand, we turn to Austin Mock’s projections. Mock projects the score for every game and the final winning percentage for every team using his NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses. The simulation then runs 100,000 times after each day of games to give us, in this case, our projected top-10 draft order, plus each team’s projected win total and playoff chances.
Projected top 10 (as of Oct. 24)
A few thoughts on this week’s projections:
1. The top three holds
Carolina (which has traded its first-round pick to Chicago) didn’t play this weekend, and Arizona lost in Seattle, so it’s no surprise that picks 1 and 2 mimicked our last projection. The Bears, though, did pick up a victory Sunday — undrafted rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent helped them to a 30-12 rout of the Raiders.
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It was a needed boost for a Chicago team that hasn’t had a ton go right this year, but it did not move the needle much here. The Bears’ projected win total climbed from 4.6 a week ago to 5.1. Holding the numbers down is the fact that Chicago, still temporarily without starting quarterback Justin Fields, is about to embark on a stretch of four road games in five weeks, starting with a Week 8 trip to face the increasingly desperate Chargers.
Again, because the Bears own that Panthers pick, they’re currently slated to be at slots 1 and 3 come April.
2. Minnesota makes a big jump
Did we write off Minnesota too hastily? Two weeks ago, the Vikings looked like obvious sellers ahead of the Oct. 31 trade deadline, but our own Dianna Russini reported prior to Week 6 that Kirk Cousins would stay put. This week, Russini noted the Vikings “have received calls about Danielle Hunter but have yet to receive a substantial offer.”
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After an impressive Monday night win over the 49ers, however, Minnesota now sits just a half-game back in the NFC wild-card race, and its projected playoff chance has shot up from 22.4 percent to 43.3 percent. Beat the Packers in Green Bay this Sunday, and the Vikings will have pulled back to .500 with a friendly schedule ahead (at Atlanta, New Orleans, at Denver, Chicago, at Las Vegas). They also play NFC North leader Detroit twice over the final three weeks of the season, so it’s not out of the question that the division title could be up for grabs at that point.
How will that impact next week’s trade deadline? Stay tuned.
Whether the Titans are or not — and head coach Mike Vrabel isn’t exactly a candidate to shut it down six games into the season — the signs are there. The latest: Monday’s trade of franchise cornerstone Kevin Byard to the Eagles for two Day 3 draft picks (a fifth- and sixth-rounder in 2024) and safety Terrell Edmunds.
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Even without Byard, the Titans could get back on track in a hurry — they play two games in five days starting Sunday (Atlanta, at Pittsburgh). The outlook would be a lot rosier at 4-4, even if Tennessee still would be trailing in the AFC South race.
But Mock’s projections paint an ugly picture. The Titans now have a projected win total of just 5.4 (way down from 7.1 last week) and a playoff chance of 1.1 percent (down from 12.1 percent).
4. Welcome (back) to the top 10 …
… Las Vegas. Maybe settle in for a bit.
Josh McDaniels’ seat continues to heat up, with that Week 7 loss in Chicago about as damning a hit as has landed thus far. Granted, the Raiders were without starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (whose status for Monday night’s trip to Detroit is in doubt), but the Bears are … not great. And the Raiders were never really in that game, despite facing Bagent in his first NFL start.
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Las Vegas has bounced in and out of our projected top 10 all season. The latest numbers have McDaniels’ team with 6.9 projected wins and a 4.5 percent playoff shot — rather low considering the Raiders are in second place in the AFC West despite sitting three full games back of Kansas City.
On top of that matchup with the Lions, the Raiders — already sitting on four losses — still have to face the Chiefs twice, the Dolphins, the Chargers, the resurgent Vikings and a home back-to-back with the Giants and Jets. The wheels aren’t off, but they’re wobbling.
5. San Francisco maintains its NFC West stranglehold
It has been a tough couple of weeks for the 49ers, who dropped their second straight game Monday night, 22-17 at Minnesota. That loss came a week after a 19-17 setback in Cleveland. San Francisco’s vaunted defensive front made almost no impact against the Vikings, while previously unflappable quarterback Brock Purdy looked rather human (including two late, critical interceptions).
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The Seahawks won Sunday, too, pushing their record to 4-2 — now just a half-game back of the 49ers in the NFC West. Still, Mock’s model has that division as San Francisco’s to lose: The 49ers’ chances of winning the division sit at 89.7 percent, even in the tightening race, while the Seahawks are at just 8.5 percent.
(Photo of Bears QB Tyson Bagent: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
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