2024 Ukrainian Military Crisis: Expert Analysis and Implications for Russian Offensive

2024-04-03 14:54:22
2024-04-03 22:54 Compiled by Lianhe Daily Zhou Chenyang/Real-time reporting

POLITICO Europe published a long report on the 3rd, revealing that senior Ukrainian military officers interviewed anonymously admitted that the military situation is serious and that no matter where the Russian generals decide to focus the upcoming offensive, it is likely to be successful.

The report pointed out that the situation on the battlefield between Russia and Ukraine is now basically determined by the offensive that Russia is expected to launch this summer. The strike range of missiles and drones has been widely increased from northern Ukraine to southern Ukraine in recent weeks, locking the infrastructure and making it difficult to guess. Where the Russian army will launch its main advance.

A senior military officer who served under Zaluzny, the former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, pointed out that the current military situation is grim and that no matter where the Russian army concentrates its offensive, the Ukrainian army’s frontline is at great risk of collapse. In addition, thanks to superior strength and guided bombs that have been crushing Ukrainian positions for weeks, the Russian army may be able to “break through the front line and destroy it in some areas.”

A senior military source revealed, “There is nothing that can help Ukraine now, because Russia may gather a large number of troops to pounce on us. There is no real technology that can make up for Ukraine. We do not have these technologies, and the West does not have sufficient numbers themselves.”

This person said that the only factors that may change the serious situation now are the courage and resilience of the Ukrainian army and the mistakes of the Russian commander. However, senior Ukrainian military officers reminded that it is not a strategy to expect the Russian army to make mistakes. At the same time, they were extremely dissatisfied with the mistakes that hampered Ukraine from the beginning, and both the West and Ukraine made mistakes. They harshly criticized Western countries for being hesitant, and that supplies and weapons systems arrived too late and in insufficient quantities to make the difference they could have created.

One of the officers said that Zaluzny often called this “a battle of opportunity,” meaning that the weapon system would soon become redundant because it would soon encounter Russian counterattacks. “Russia is always there.” They will not give us a second chance to learn. They are very successful in this regard.” He also pointed out that don’t believe that the Russian army just throws troops into the meat grinder and slaughters them. “Of course they will do the same to maximize the advantage of their numbers. influence, but they also learn and optimize”.

Officers said that the Russian army is ready to fight back and that the Ukrainian army now needs more basic traditional weapons and drones, while emphasizing that many soldiers are needed. Although President Zelensky signed a bill on the 2nd to lower the age for mobilization for combat service from 27 to 25, this move can only be regarded as a minor repair.

One of the officers said, “We not only have a military crisis, we also have a political crisis.” Although Ukraine avoids large-scale military conscription, “Russia is now gathering resources and will be ready to launch a major attack around August, and possibly sooner.”

Last month, the Ukrainian army fired artillery fire on the Russian army on the Donetsk front line.AP Ukraine Russia Russia-Ukraine War Bombs Missiles Zelensky

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