2023-06-29 03:50:20
2025 Power Outage Crisis” “Non-nuclear” After the rescue pitcher opened the skylight, the power blackout may become a daily routine
Text: Liu Guangying Research: Lin Xinnan
In 2025, nuclear power will return to zero soon, but gas will not be enough to open the skylight and “scenery”. Key data reveals the power dilemma: Taiwan may stage a major blackout in two years! The energy transformation is blooming everywhere and becoming a beacon everywhere, impacting the energy multiple-choice question of the 25 trillion output value of the national manufacturing industry. Instead of walking the tightrope with fear, it may be time to re-discuss the shutdown schedule of nuclear power.
Electric Power Dilemma” “Non-nuclear” post-power supply tightrope TSMC: The government says that there is no shortage of electricity, so it can only be believed
“It doesn’t make sense for the government to build thermal power plants everywhere while saying that there is no shortage of electricity!” Zhang Chunhui, a 38-year-old mother of two, is married to a TSMC engineer.
When she heard that a thermal power plant was going to be built 2 kilometers away from her home, she felt incredible. The air quality in Tainan is already poor. She is worried that natural gas power plants will increase air pollution. Although the pollution of natural gas plants is far lower than that of traditional coal-fired power generation, there is no sulfur oxide. Jiuwei also promised in the environmental assessment that the average annual emissions of nitrogen oxides in the future will be only 4ppm, which is similar to Taipower’s most advanced units at present, still cannot reassure residents.
Residents’ protests worked. The cross-party legislators in Tainan City promised on the same day that they would oppose the power plant to the end. Tainan Mayor Huang Weizhe even said, “Stand with the citizens, such as Jiuwei’s application for construction will be rejected and returned.”
The first phase of this gas-fired power plant is expected to develop 600,000 kilowatts, accounting for only 1.5% of Taiwan’s peak load, which does not seem to be much. But in the next few years, when Taiwan’s power supply falls into a dilemma, it will become a key minority.
Because after 2025, according to the non-nuclear homeland policy, the nuclear power plants that took up 9% of electricity last year will all be decommissioned. After that, the power supply will be like walking a tightrope, and 1% must not be less, which makes the industry worried.
Tong Zixian, chairman of Pegatron, has repeatedly called for rethinking the energy ratio and restarting nuclear power recently. Even Liu Deyin, chairman of TSMC, which has always supported the government’s power policy, said helplessly when asked about power shortages at a shareholders’ meeting, “The Taiwan government thinks there is enough power, and we can only believe it.”
2 years after the rescue pitcher opened the skylight, power cuts and black lights may become a daily routine
The worst power supply situation, according to Liang Qiyuan, a professor of management at Central University, estimates that by 2025, the reserve transfer capacity rate at night in summer may only be 0.4%, which is a “black light” ready for power cuts at any time.
“This is unacceptably low,” Liang Qiyuan worried. At that time, there may be a repeat of the 513 and 517 blackouts in 2021. Factories will be forced to shut down. When the sun goes down, the city will be dark and the air conditioner will not be able to turn on the dilemma.
However, a week before the publication of this report, the Ministry of Economic Affairs released the latest electricity supply and demand forecast, pointing out that even if nuclear power is completely abolished, the reserve transfer capacity rate in 2025 will still reach 11.6%, which is as high as 4 million kilowatts less than Liang Qiyuan’s estimate.
He explained that the Ministry of Economic Affairs’ forecast has two major weaknesses: one is to overestimate the progress of development, and the other is to underestimate demand growth. Spreading out Taipower’s power supply plan, the “relief pitcher” who should fill the position will soon open the skylight in 2025, and the gap between the two major gas plants will total 1.91 million kilowatts.
According to the plan, the second unit of the nuclear power plant had to stop running on May 17 of that year, allowing Taiwan to officially enter the “non-nuclear era”. Taipower plans to add 1.3 million gas-fired units at the Taichung thermal power plant in April. The plant has no gas”, because the Taichung Fifth Natural Gas Receiving Station is still stuck in the EIA.
As for the 610,000 kilowatts of private gas plant Zhongjia Power, the report said that it will be connected in June, but Zhongjia has stated a few days ago that it will not be online until the end of 2025 at the earliest.
In addition, the progress of green electricity is not as good as expected. Due to the shortage of wind power generation due to the new crown epidemic and inflation, the implementation progress in 2022 is only 24%. Sunshine Optoelectronics is not easy to obtain land due to the small population in Taiwan. Last year, the implementation rate was only 57%, and it has entered the deep water area.
The supply gap in 2025 is now clear. The night-time net peak capacity planned by the Ministry of Economic Affairs (editor’s note: refers to the maximum power supply capacity) is 45.4 million kw, and 1.91 million kw of gas for opening skylights must be deducted, which is only 43.5 million kw. By contrast, the reserve capacity rate in 2025 is only 5.4%, and the reserve transfer capacity rate at night in summer is only 0.4%, 160,000 kw, entering the “black light” of power cut preparations.
Zeng Wensheng, Deputy Minister of Economic Affairs and Acting Chairman of Taipower, thinks this forecast is too pessimistic.
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