Federal forecasters expect a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season driven by an anticipated El Niño, even as competing ocean temperatures and wind patterns create uncertainty. NOAA predicts 8 to 14 named storms, contrasting sharply with high activity in other basins and accompanied by new forecasting tools.
Below-Normal Atlantic Outlook and Competing Climatic Drivers
The Atlantic hurricane season, running officially from June 1 through November 30, faces a 55% chance of below-normal activity, according to NOAA. Forecasters predict a total of 8 to 14 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, 3 to 6 could become hurricanes with winds reaching at least 74 mph, including 1 to 3 major hurricanes rated Category 3 or higher. The agency also calculated a 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of an above-normal season, holding 70% confidence in these ranges.
This subdued expectation diverges from recent frenetic seasons. The primary driving force behind the suppressed Atlantic outlook is the anticipated return of El Niño, which has the potential to become historically strong. El Niño conditions typically support less tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic. However, forecasters note that these suppressing forces compete directly with other factors: ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to run slightly warmer than normal, and trade winds are likely to remain weaker than average, both of which generally support storm formation.
Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,
said Ken Graham, National Weather Service Director.
Graham emphasized that it only takes one storm to make for a very bad season, urging residents not to wait for a direct threat before reviewing their preparedness plans.
Advanced Forecasting Technologies and Enhanced Communication Products
Federal officials highlighted rapid technological upgrades designed to sharpen storm warnings this year. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings.
Building on those tools, NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs pointed to NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data to deliver actionable science.
Alongside these computational upgrades, the National Hurricane Center is rolling out practical communication changes for people in harm’s way. The agency will implement an improved version of its tropical cyclone forecast cone graphic. Virgin Islands. Forecasters will also test an experimental track forecast cone that captures a wider range of possibilities by incorporating uncertainties for both movement direction and timing.
Pacific Activity: Absorption, Remnants, and Central Pacific Outlooks
While the Atlantic anticipates a quieter year, Tropical Storm Julio formed in the Pacific Ocean and was on track to be absorbed by the stronger Tropical Storm Iselle churning to its north. Julio formed roughly 675 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Mexico’s Baja California peninsula with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph. Iselle sat further west with winds of 70 mph, while neither system carried coastal watches or warnings.
In the Central Pacific, Tropical Storm Lala continued to churn with 50 mph winds without threatening land, though its outer bands had earlier battered Hawaii as a hurricane with destructive flooding. Meanwhile, Moke dropped below tropical cyclone status after skirting Hawaii as a tropical storm. NOAA’s separate seasonal outlooks for the eastern and central Pacific basins point in the opposite direction of the Atlantic, anticipating active seasons driven by moderate or stronger El Niño conditions.
Historical Context and What Remains Unpredictable
Season-level outlooks model large-scale climate patterns but cannot predict specific landfall locations or timing, which depend entirely on short-term atmospheric shifts. NOAA last forecasted a below-average season in 2015, another year shaped by El Niño during which 12 named storms roamed the Atlantic basin.
With three named storms already recorded in 2026—exceeding the historical average of about two storms by this point in the calendar—the season proceeds toward its historical mid-September peak under close observation by forecasters tracking wind shear, Saharan dry air plumes, and shifting sea surface temperatures across the basins.
