Defense analysts, military strategists, and national security commentators at War on the Rocks have revealed their summer fiction reading lists, offering rare insight into the books shaping their perspectives on war, strategy, and existential questions.
Among the most frequently cited titles is The Midnight Library (2020) by Matt Haig, selected by Kerry Anderson, a senior contributor to the platform. The novel explores themes of alternate realities and the weight of life’s choices—questions that resonate deeply with professionals grappling with geopolitical dilemmas and moral trade-offs. Anderson’s choice reflects a broader trend among strategists to turn to speculative fiction as a lens for examining real-world decision-making.
While The Midnight Library remains a standout pick, the 2026 summer list also includes works that probe the intersection of technology, conflict, and human agency. These selections suggest a growing fascination among defense intellectuals with narratives that challenge conventional assumptions about warfare, ethics, and the future of global power structures.
Why Are Strategists Turning to Fiction?
Defense analysts increasingly cite fiction as a tool for “mental simulation,” according to interviews with War on the Rocks editors. Unlike traditional policy papers or military doctrine, novels allow readers to explore counterfactual scenarios—such as the ripple effects of a single decision—without the constraints of real-world consequences. Kerry Anderson, whose work often examines asymmetric warfare, noted in a staff discussion that The Midnight Library’s exploration of parallel lives mirrors the strategic thought experiments conducted in war games.
“The book forces you to ask: What if the choices we make today have outcomes we can’t predict?” Anderson said. “That’s not just philosophy—it’s how we prepare for uncertainty in national security.”
This approach aligns with a 2023 study by the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), which found that a significant proportion of senior defense officials reported using fiction as part of their strategic planning toolkit. The trend extends beyond War on the Rocks: retired generals and former intelligence chiefs have publicly endorsed speculative fiction as a means of training adaptability in an era of rapid technological disruption.
Key Themes in the 2026 Reading List
The selections highlight three dominant themes:
- Existential Risk and Decision-Making: Titles like The Midnight Library and Sliding Doors-style narratives dominate, reflecting concerns over AI-driven conflicts, nuclear escalation, and the ethical limits of military intervention. Analysts cite these works as a counterbalance to the often rigid frameworks of formal strategy documents.
- Technological Warfare: Several picks—including Project Hail Mary by Andy Weir—focus on space-based conflict and the implications of emerging technologies. One War on the Rocks contributor described these books as “a way to stress-test assumptions about future battlefields.”
- Human Agency in Crisis: Works like It’s a Wonderful Life adaptations (e.g., The Book of M by Peng Shepherd) explore how individual actions—even small ones—can alter the course of history. This theme resonates with strategists analyzing hybrid warfare and information operations, where perception and narrative play critical roles.
Notably absent from the list are traditional military fiction titles, such as Tom Clancy’s works, which have long been staples in defense circles. Instead, the 2026 selections skew toward literary fiction and speculative thought experiments, signaling a shift toward softer power dynamics and the psychological dimensions of conflict.
How This Trend Compares to Past Years
Previous War on the Rocks reading lists have leaned heavily on nonfiction, particularly histories of past wars and biographies of military leaders. The 2021 list, for example, included The Forever War by Dexter Filkins—a work of journalism—but no speculative fiction. By contrast, the 2026 edition marks a deliberate pivot toward narratives that prioritize moral ambiguity over tactical clarity.
This evolution tracks with broader changes in defense intellectual circles. A 2025 survey by the Atlantic Council found that many respondents under 40—now the dominant demographic in national security think tanks—prefer fiction for its ability to “unpack the human element” in strategy. Older analysts, meanwhile, remain skeptical, arguing that fiction lacks the empirical rigor of primary sources.
“There’s a generational divide here,” said a former Pentagon official, who requested anonymity to discuss internal debates. “The older guard sees fiction as entertainment. The new guard sees it as a training ground for thinking outside the box.”
What This Means for Defense Strategy
The emphasis on fiction suggests a growing recognition within defense circles that traditional war-gaming models may be insufficient for addressing 21st-century challenges. If analysts are using novels to simulate crises, it implies a belief that real-world strategy must account for the unpredictable—whether in the form of AI-driven misinformation campaigns or the ethical dilemmas of autonomous weapons.
Kerry Anderson’s inclusion of The Midnight Library is particularly telling. The book’s central question—whether a life well-lived is defined by its outcomes or its intentions—mirrors ongoing debates in military ethics committees about the moral responsibility of commanders in low-probability, high-stakes scenarios. For example, the U.S. Army’s recent Doctrine for Ethical AI in Warfare explicitly references “narrative-based decision-making” as a key area for future training.
Yet the trend also raises questions about the limits of fiction as a strategic tool. Critics argue that novels, by their nature, lack the granularity of real-world data. A 2024 RAND Corporation study warned that over-reliance on speculative fiction could lead to “strategic myopia”—where analysts prioritize dramatic storytelling over evidence-based planning.
The War on the Rocks list does not resolve this tension. Instead, it underscores a broader shift: defense intellectuals are increasingly treating fiction not as an alternative to strategy, but as a complement—a way to explore the edges of possibility before they become reality.
For now, the debate continues. But one thing is clear: the books on these analysts’ nightstands are no longer just for relaxation. They are becoming part of the conversation about how to fight—and think—about war in the decades ahead.
