At this five-year party congress, Xi Jinping is likely to retain the positions of general secretary of the party central committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, and then retain the position of president at the National People’s Congress in the spring of 2023.
How is the party congress held?
About 2,300 delegates will gather in the Great Hall of the People next to Tiananmen Square for a week-long meeting.
About 200 of them will be elected to the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, with about 170 alternate members.
The Central Committee will elect 25 people to the party’s Politburo.
The Politburo will make appointments to the Politburo Standing Committee.
They are the elite of the elite in their power structure.
There are currently seven members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, including Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee.
Not everything will be done at the party congress.
On the day following the congress, the new Central Committee will hold a plenary session.
The importance of the party congress
Xi Jinping leads the world’s second-largest economy and one of the world’s largest military armed forces.
Some analysts say he may push China into a more authoritarian political stance in his third term.
“China under Xi Jinping is heading in a totalitarian direction,” said Professor Steve Tsang of the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London.
“China under Mao Zedong was a totalitarian system. We’re not there yet, but we’re heading in that direction.”
Professor Zeng said that this party congress may revise the party constitution to make “Xi Jinping Thought” the guiding ideology of the party.
“Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” is Xi Jinping-style Chinese socialism, a staunchly nationalist philosophy with a high degree of suspicion of private enterprise.
Under his leadership, Chinese authorities have clamped down on giant companies in several sectors of the economy.
“If that’s the case, that effectively makes him a dictator,” Professor Tsang said.
China’s top leadership, unveiled at the party congress, will formulate a wide range of policies.
Any hint of China’s future will be closely watched by the world, especially on some key issues: economics, politics, diplomacy and environmental affairs.
China’s economic challenges
China’s economy has been booming in recent decades.
But now, China faces severe economic instability, rising prices and a major real estate crisis under the Covid-19 lockdown.
The war in Ukraine has fueled growing fears of a global recession, which has also hit confidence in the Chinese economy.
Under Xi Jinping, the rate of economic growth was lower than under Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao and other predecessors.
Some analysts say the legitimacy of the Communist Party’s rule is highly dependent on its ability to provide Chinese people with high incomes and good jobs.
Therefore, if the economy does not perform well over the next five years, it could spell a serious political crisis for Xi Jinping.
The current party congress will create conditions for the changes of key players in the economic field such as central bank governors and prime ministers.
New crown “zero” policy
China’s new crown “zero” policy is one of Xi Jinping’s signature policies.
While much of the world is returning to normal, Chinese authorities have stepped up efforts to contain the outbreak, including harsh lockdowns, mass testing and prolonged quarantines.
According to reports, in recent weeks, several cities, including Shenzhen and Chengdu, have been completely or partially blocked, affecting tens of millions of residents, disrupting many industries, and reporting public dissatisfaction from time to time.
Medical staff in Guiyang City, Guizhou Province test residents for the new crown.
Xi Jinping stated that he would “resolutely fight against all words and deeds that distort, doubt and deny my country’s epidemic prevention policies and policies.”
A large-scale outbreak on the eve of or during the party congress could damage Xi Jinping’s image in power.
Some observers have suggested that the CCP may use the party congress to declare victory in the fight against the epidemic, and then end the policy of “zeroing out” the new crown.
Or, the CCP will insist that China, unlike other countries, values people’s lives above economic interests, so that the “zero” policy will continue.
Taiwan and the West
Xi Jinping also favors a hard line on relations with the West, especially on the Taiwan issue.
The speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives visited Taiwan in August, prompting China to conduct military exercises around the island, including live missile tests.
China has long viewed Taiwan as a betrayal province that will eventually fall under Beijing’s control. Taiwan sees itself as a place different from mainland China.
Xi Jinping has said that “unification” with Taiwan must be achieved by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party – and has not ruled out the possibility of achieving it by force.
Security experts say a Chinese takeover of Taiwan would undermine U.S. influence in the Western Pacific and beyond.
Taiwan is of strategic importance to the West, and it is part of the so-called “first island chain” – a long list of areas in the Asia-Pacific region that have been aligned with the United States for decades.
