As for the November 2022 Household Economic and Living Index (KR-ECI), it showed the highest increase in 14 months, but still below the pre-COVID-19 level. In November, the index rose to 35.0 from 33.8 in October 2022, and the three-month KR-ECI index also rose to 36.4 from 35.7 in October 2022.
The results from the above figures reflect that households are less concerned about their burden of spending. Corresponding to the Thai inflation index in November 2022 The third month in a row dropped at 5.55%, with prices on many items rising at a slower pace, such as vegetables and fruits such as kale, yard long beans, cabbage and rice.
In addition, the domestic retail price of gasoline and gasohol in October dropped for the second straight month, while Thailand continued to hold the retail price of diesel at 35 baht per liter for the month. The 6th in a row, as well as the cost of electricity, which is now 4.72 baht per unit until December. 65 is likely to be pegged until early next year.
including the recovery of the tourism sector (as of December 4, 2022, more than 9.09 million foreign tourists have arrived in Thailand and generated more than 300 billion baht in income for Thailand), supporting consumption and employment Domestic jobs continued to improve, with Thailand’s 3Q22 employment growing by 2.1%YoY, and the average weekly working hours of the private sector increased higher than pre-COVID-19 levels. at 46.9 hours per week
However, households are still concerned about income going forward. Reflected through the index, which was slightly downward from the previous month. or have more concerns It comes from concerns about salary and compensation. Because the Thai economy is still in a recovery period.
In addition, in the future, there are likely to face many challenging factors from the global economic outlook that is at risk of slowing down. which will drag down the demand for Thai products As well as the volume of orders from China is still highly uncertain. Although China has begun to relax measures to control COVID. by Thai exports in October 2022 facing contraction for the first time in 20 months
The Kasikorn Research Center views that overall Thai exports this year will grow lower than the previous estimate of 7.8%YoY. This may affect the manufacturing sector and employment in the country. In addition, the Kasikorn Research Center expects that farm income in 2023 may contract by 0.8%YoY due to price pressure.
From now on, economic recovery and household livelihoods are still fragile due to many risk factors. In particular, world energy prices that have started to decline. But it can still fluctuate. In addition, the domestic inflation trend may not decrease quickly amid the continuous transmission of costs of entrepreneurs to consumers. as well as reducing government subsidies for energy prices.
While the world’s major economy like the United States and the European Union It is likely to enter a technical recession next year, which may affect the continuation of the Thai economic recovery.
In addition, the direction of the MPC’s policy rate hike (It is expected to rise to the level of 1.75-2.00% in 2023) may affect household finance costs from the tendency to pass more interest rates by commercial banks. which is now starting to see the direction of raising interest rates for retail customers of various banks
However, various economic stimulus measures that are expected to become clearer before the end of the year, such as tax relief measures, must be monitored. measures to stimulate spending and tourism, etc., which may require further consideration of the consistency of the measures with target groups