The dollar exchange rate has been going in an upward direction for days, fueled by official decisions either to raise the percentage of liquidity insurance required in US dollars by companies importing fuel from the black market to 30%, in addition to what is being circulated about raising the customs dollar by a ministerial decision to 20,000.
In an interview with “Lebanon Debate”, the economic researcher, Dr. Mahmoud Jebai, confirms that “it has become clear the government’s insistence on setting the price of the customs dollar at 20 thousand pounds, and it will gradually rise to reach the price of an exchange platform, knowing that the figure of 20 thousand is a large number compared to the previous year. The country’s economic and living situation, and if approved and signed by the President of the Republic, the official price will be 20 thousand pounds instead of 1500 pounds, meaning that the state will collect its fees at the exchange rate of 20 thousand.”
Dr. Jebai is surprised, “The Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance are adopting the price of 20,000, knowing that there is no ability to increase salaries and wages by a large percentage from what they are today, which may create a state of living chaos, which is likely to turn into a security chaos, because many Families, especially employees, will not be able to secure their livelihood, especially since they are suffering at the current stage due to the high exchange rate of the dollar and high inflation.
He believes that “the government should start at a rate of 12,000 to the customs dollar to be close to the size of the increases or aid approved by the government, after which the government can benefit from the customs dollar revenues to increase salaries at a higher rate, and after 6 months it begins to gradually raise the customs dollar to be in line with the salary increase.”
He considers that “raising the customs dollar and raising the prices of everything at the price of 20 thousand will, of course, affect the price of the dollar in the parallel market, which will impose a decline in the exchange rate of the Lebanese pound, as the burdens in this pound will become great, and therefore it will lead to a significant increase in the dollar exchange rate in light of The inability of the Central Bank to intervene forcefully to curb this rise, which will lead to a large fluctuation in the exchange rate.
He points out that “the Central Bank was forced to reduce the provision of gasoline credits through banking, as companies are required to secure 30% of the dollars, which will soon become 100 percent.”
Dr. Jebai concludes, “4 factors can escape the dollar’s exchange rate to reach a large and record high, and these factors are: the customs dollar and the fees that will follow, the dependence of purchasing fuel on the price of the parallel market?, the end of the summer season and the return of expatriates to their countries, and the inability to The Central Bank is required to secure the dollar except from the parallel market.