Following the November 2026 midterm elections, Democrats have secured trifectas in five key states, potentially providing enough support to activate the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC).
Changes to the Electoral College
The compact is an agreement among states to award all their electoral votes to the presidential candidate who wins the national popular vote. Currently, 18 states and the District of Columbia have enacted the legislation, representing 222 electoral votes, according to National Popular Vote.
Democratic victories in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have created new single-party control in these states, which represent a total of 61 electoral votes. Lawmakers in all five states have previously introduced legislation to join the compact. Supporters of the movement believe that the sweep of Democratic wins for governor and in state legislatures has made the objective substantially more conceivable.
Axios; Democrats poised to break GOP's 16-year grip on statehouses Democrats are on track to take control of a majority of legislative chambers, ending 16 years of Republican dominance over America's statehouses. If current leads hold, 75% of Americans will live in a state with… pic.twitter.com/90Duv5KLaC
The idea of a national popular vote is characterized by proponents as a matter of principled election reform rather than a partisan ploy. Vikram Amar, a Distinguished Professor of Law at the UC Davis School of Law, warned that adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact without the support of states led by the opposing party would be a mistake.
Patrick Rosenstiel, a Republican strategist and senior consultant to the popular vote movement, echoed this sentiment, noting that occasionally GOP-majority legislative chambers, such as the Oklahoma Senate, have passed proposals to join the compact.
Holy shit, this seems to be… true? 18 states + DC have already enacted the compact, totaling 222 Electoral Votes. So we need 48 more electoral votes worth of states to join to hit the necessary 270. Dems just captured trifectas in PA (19 EVs), MI (15), AZ (11), WI (10), and NV… https://t.co/PS3ysici1R
Legislative Path and Constitutional Challenges
The campaign plans to begin pushing bills before or early in the 2027 legislative sessions. Rosenstiel emphasized that the organization has already identified multiple legislative sponsors in each of the five states.
However, he acknowledged that the path forward will involve many challenges. If the compact is implemented in full by 2028, it could shift campaign strategies, as winning individual swing states would no longer be as critical as capturing the most votes nationwide.
This is what all the State Legislatures are looking like. Dems now have the power to pass the National Voter Compact to effectively abolish the Electoral College. pic.twitter.com/cDAIeGqRZS
The proposal faces constitutional and legal scrutiny. Hans von Spakovsky, an election law expert with the conservative group Advancing American Freedom, stated that the compact cannot change the Electoral College structure. Notre Dame law professor Derek Muller suggested that without congressional approval, the compact would be unconstitutional, citing the Constitution’s Compact Clause as the requirement for such authorization.
Muller suggested that the Supreme Court would likely be interested in the matter, as states may not have the power to set rules that determine the outcome of contests in other states.
Legal scholar Akhil Amar, one of the minds behind the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, told me that while the Electoral College is flawed, this is a moment to “go slow and carefully consider” whether or not to abolish it. https://t.co/8FXLyq6GZB
Conversely, Rosenstiel rejected the argument that the compact improperly alters the Constitution. He pointed to the Constitution’s provision that grants states the power to appoint electors in such manner as the legislature may direct.
He further noted that Congress could potentially approve the compact with simple majorities in the House and Senate, and because the Constitution does not explicitly require the president’s signature, some argue a veto might not stop the process.
The political appetite for this change remains varied among state leaders. Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs, when asked about the compact, focused her comments on addressing affordability, securing the border, and protecting public education; her office declined to comment further on the compact itself.
Similarly, State Senator Analise Ortiz of Arizona noted that the state is a key player in the conversation. In Nevada, the project faces a cautionary history, as the state’s then-Democratic governor vetoed the compact in 2019 due to concerns that it could diminish the state’s influence over presidential elections.
National Popular Vote Momentum Follows Disputed Elections
The push for a national popular vote gained traction following the 2000 presidential election, when George W. Bush won the presidency while losing the popular vote to Al Gore. This scenario repeated in 2016. Supporters argue that the current system allows candidates to concentrate on a half-dozen swing states, whereas a national popular vote would force campaigns to focus on every persuadable voter in every precinct across the nation.
Carrie Rheingans, a Democrat in the Michigan House of Representatives, recently told the New York Times that the time is right
for such reform.
Muller warned that implementing the compact by 2028 is “nonsensical,” suggesting that more than a year or so would be needed to make the project operational and avoid major glitches. As the 2027 legislative sessions approach, the movement faces the reality that while the political arithmetic has changed, the legal and procedural hurdles are large.
This report received contributions from Marc Levy in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; Jacqueline GaNun in Lansing, Michigan; Jessica Hill in Las Vegas; and Mikella Schuettler in Phoenix, all writing for the Associated Press.
Earlier coverage: Democrats win major victories in US midterms to secure Congress
