- Matt McGrath
- BBC News, Environment Correspondent @mattmcgrathbbc
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“I think the big message is that we must end the era of fossil fuels,” said Jan Christoph Minx, one of the report’s authors.
The dangers of climate change have been reported for years. But what has received less attention is how the world could effectively tackle the problem.
On April 4, scientists from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented a plan to avoid the worst impacts of rising temperatures.
The IPCC report essentially calls for a revolution in energy and food production.
Scientists point out that in order to prevent a very dangerous warming of the planet, carbon emissions must peak in three years and then fall rapidly.
Even then, the technology to extract CO2 from the air will still be needed to keep temperatures low.
Here are five key ideas that IPCC researchers say are critical to keeping the world safe.
1 – Coal should be a thing of the past
The 63 dense pages of this IPCC report are littered with qualifications and footnotes.
But a central message from the scientists emerges clearly. If the world wants to stay away from dangerous warming, fossil fuels “are fried”.
Keep the world below 1.5°C requires CO2 emissions to peak in 2025, researchers note, and drop by 43% by the end of this decade.
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The cost of renewable energy was reduced by around 85% during the 2010-2020 decade.
The most effective way to make that change is to generate power from sustainable sources like wind and solar.
The authors highlight the collapsing costs of these technologies, which were reduced by around 85% during the 2010-2020 decade.
And while the war in Ukraine is causing Europe’s governments to flirt once again with coal, a carbon emitter, there is broad political acceptance that cheap and sustainable energy is the only path to energy security that does not depend on of Vladimir Putin.
Therefore, to contain the temperature of the planet (and due to the current political context), the IPCC believes that coal should finally be retired for good.
“I think it’s a very strong message, there can be no new coal-fired power plants anymore. Otherwise, you are really risking the goal of not exceeding 1.5°C,” says Professor Jan Christoph Minx of the University of Leeds, and coordinating lead author of the IPCC report.
“I think the big message is that we must end the era of fossil fuels. And not only do we have to end it, but we have to do it very quickly.”
2 – The unbelievable becomes real…
A few years ago, the idea of a technological solution to climate change was considered by many to be eccentric.
From spraying substances into the atmosphere to cool the Earth to blocking the Sun with shields in space, several of those ideas were criticized and quickly forgotten.
But as the climate crisis has intensified and carbon emission reductions remain elusive, researchers have been forced to reconsider the role of technology in both limiting and reducing CO2 in the atmosphere.
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This plant in Iceland extracts and stores CO2 from the atmosphere.
The “carbon dioxide removal” (CDR) proposals are now officially on the table with the endorsement of the IPCC in this latest report.
Scientists are blunt: it will not be possible to keep temperatures low without some kind of techniques to remove carbon from the atmosphereeither through trees or machines that extract CO2.
There is much opposition to this from environmentalists, some of whom accuse the IPCC of having bowed to pressure from fossil fuel producing countries and of placing too much emphasis on technologies that remain essentially unproven.
“The main shortcoming I see is that the report is too weak in terms of rapid reduction targets for fossil fuel emissions,” said Linda Schneider of the Heinrich Böll Foundation in Berlin.
“I would have expected the report to present reliable pathways towards 1.5°C, without relying on technologies that we just don’t know will work“.
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Reducing energy demand by consumers is key, according to the IPCC.
3 – Curbing demand is a secret weapon
One of the big differences in this report compared to previous versions is that the social sciences have a strong presence.
This is seen primarily in ideas to reduce consumer demand for energy in areas such as housing, transportation, and food.
Suggestions include low-carbon diets, reductions in food waste, construction changes in cities, and lower-carbon transport options.
The IPCC believes that changes in these areas could limit emissions from sectors providing services to consumers by 40-70% by 2050, while improving people’s well-being.
The report is quite specific and detailed on this matter, and yes, these changes will require incentives from governments. But they seem like a fairly painless strategy for making an impact.
4 – Cooling the planet with cash…
Actions against climate change have often been delayed by debates about their financial cost.
But recent years have seen the cost of weather disasters rise steadily.
The IPCC claims that too much money continues to flow into fossil fuels and not into clean energy climate solutions.
If the subsidies that governments give to fossil fuels were eliminated, this would reduce emissions by up to 10% by 2030, according to Greenpeace.
In the longer term, models that incorporate the economic damage caused by climate change show that the overall cost of limiting temperature rise a 2°C during this century is less than the global economic benefits of reducing warming, says the IPCC.
Keeping temperatures well below 2°C would cost a bit more, but not much, given the damage that would be avoided and the wide range of co-benefits, such as cleaner air and water.
“If you take the most aggressive scenarios from the entire report, it would cost, at most, 0.1% of the estimated annual GDP growth rate,” said Professor Michael Grubb of University College London, also the report’s coordinating lead author. .
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The report says that the world’s richest people are spending too much money on transportation, for example, with private planes.
5 – The role of the rich
There is a renewed emphasis in this report on the enormous impact that the richest people are having on the planet.
According to the IPCC, the 10% of households with the highest per capita emissions contribute up to 45% of the greenhouse gas emissions produced by household consumption.
In essence, report says the world’s richest people are spending too much money on transportation, including private planes.
Will this make them a target for increased taxation or other measures to reduce their emissions?
That may well be the case, but some IPCC authors believe that the wealthy have other roles to play in helping the world reach net zero.
“Wealthy people contribute disproportionately to higher emissions, but have high potential to reduce emissions while maintaining high levels of well-being and decent living standards,” said Professor Patrick Devine-Wright of the University of Exeter, another author. main part of the IPCC report.
“I think there are people of high socioeconomic status who could reduce their emissions and become role models with low-carbon lifestyles, investments in low-carbon businesses and opportunities, and action to push for strong climate policies.”
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