Oil Markets Face Key Resistance as Traders Analyze Volume Profile Control

Crude Oil Surges as Market Builds Value higher, Eyes Key Resistance

Breaking News: Crude oil markets are showing robust upward momentum following a period of consolidation, with traders pushing prices higher and building value above the 65.50 microComposite Volume Point of control (mcVPOC). The market’s ability to hold support levels and test resistance zones repeatedly suggests a bullish sentiment, with further upside potential anticipated as long as key support holds.

The Market’s Journey: After establishing acceptance around the 65.50 mcVPOC, crude oil successfully broke out of its previous consolidation phase. This breakout signals an intent to move higher, evidenced by the 2-day mcVPOC climbing to 68.29. The market’s performance, characterized by sustained support holding and multiple tests of resistance, indicates a strong underlying demand.what’s Next for Crude Oil: The immediate outlook for crude oil remains positive. The market is expected to continue its ascent, provided it can maintain its position above critical support levels.A key confluence of support and the yearly open at 67.65 presents a psychological barrier that, if breached convincingly, could pave the way for further gains. Traders will be closely watching the resistance zone between 68.85 and 68.95, a break above wich would solidify the bullish trend.

Evergreen insights for Traders:

Understanding Volume Profile: The concept of Volume point of Control (VPOC) is crucial in technical analysis. The mcVPOC represents the price level where the most trading activity occurred over a specific period, acting as a notable magnet for price. When a market consolidates and then breaks out of a VPOC, it frequently enough signals a continuation of the trend.
The Importance of Support and Resistance: Identifying and respecting key support and resistance levels are fundamental to trading. Support levels act as floors, preventing prices from falling further, while resistance levels act as ceilings. The ability of the market to hold support suggests buyer conviction, and repeated tests of resistance indicate growing pressure on sellers.
The Power of Value Building: when a market consistently trades at higher price levels and establishes new areas of acceptance (indicated by rising VPOCs), it’s a sign of healthy demand and bullish accumulation. This “building value higher” is a classic characteristic of an uptrend.
Confluence in Technical Analysis: The mention of “yearly open confluence” highlights the power of combining different technical indicators or price points.When multiple significant levels align (like a support zone and the yearly open), it often creates a stronger, more reliable trading signal.

Key Levels to Watch:

Resistance Zone: 68.95 – 68.85
pHi (Previous High): 68.87
2-Day VPOC: 68.29
pSettlement (Previous Settlement): 68.38
yOpen (Yearly Open): 67.65
Support Zone: 67.70 – 67.50
pLow (Previous Low): 67.89

Primary Scenario: the trading session is expected to begin with price action within yesterday’s range.A potential move lower to test the prior day’s low,which coincides with 2-day balance support and the yearly open,is anticipated.Following this test, prices are likely to rebound towards yesterday’s settlement and the 2-day VPOC at 68.33.

Secondary Scenario: Alternatively, crude oil might experience consolidation around the previous settlement and 2-day VPOC. If the market breaks above the overnight high but fails to sustain the move, a reversion lower is possible. However,if prices remain above the prior low,the trend of one-time framing higher for the regular trading hours could continue.

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Disclaimer: Trading in derivatives carries significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is for educational purposes onyl and does not constitute trade recommendations.*

how does understanding the Point of Control (POC) within the Volume Profile help traders predict potential price movements in oil futures?

Understanding Volume Profile in Oil Trading

The oil market, currently trading around key levels as of July 11, 2025, is seeing increased scrutiny from traders utilizing Volume Profile analysis. This isn’t simply about price action; it’s about where the most trading activity has occurred.Volume Profile identifies price levels with critically important trading volume, revealing areas of acceptance and rejection. Understanding these levels is crucial for identifying potential resistance and support in crude oil futures (like WTI Oil – Aug. 2025 (OIL) as tracked on Investing.com).

What is Volume Profile? It displays the distribution of volume at specific price levels over a defined period.

Why is it crucial? it highlights areas where buyers and sellers have shown the most conviction, indicating potential turning points.

Key Components:

point of Control (POC): The price level with the highest traded volume. Frequently enough acts as a magnet for price.

Value Area (VA): The range of prices where 70% of the trading volume occurred. Represents fair value.

High Volume Nodes (HVN): Price levels with significant volume,indicating strong interest.

Low Volume Nodes (LVN): Price levels with little volume, suggesting price may move through them quickly.

Current Resistance Levels & market Analysis

Currently, oil markets are facing resistance as traders assess the control exerted by volume profile levels. Several factors are contributing to this:

1. Geopolitical tensions: Ongoing instability in key oil-producing regions continues to inject volatility. This impacts trading volume and shifts the POC.
2. OPEC+ Production Decisions: Any announcements regarding production cuts or increases immediately influence price and volume.
3. Global Economic Outlook: Concerns about a potential global recession are weighing on demand expectations, impacting oil prices.
4. Inventory Reports: Weekly inventory data from the EIA (Energy Information Administration) considerably influences market sentiment.

Traders are closely watching for a break above key HVNs established in the past month. Failure to do so could signal a continuation of the current range-bound trading pattern. Conversely,a decisive break below the VA could indicate a potential downside move.

Utilizing Volume Profile for Trading Strategies

Here’s how traders are leveraging Volume Profile to navigate the current oil market:

Identifying Rejection Levels: HVNs often act as resistance. Traders may look to short positions near these levels, with stop-loss orders placed above the node.

Finding Support: LVNs can provide support as price retraces. Traders might consider long positions near these levels, with stop-loss orders placed below.

Trading the POC: The POC often acts as a magnet for price. Traders may anticipate a move towards the POC and position accordingly.

Value Area Breaks: A break outside the VA can signal a shift in market sentiment and a potential trend change.

The Role of WTI Crude Oil Futures

WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures are the benchmark for North American oil prices. Analyzing the Volume Profile on WTI contracts (like the August 2025 contract) provides valuable insights into market sentiment. Traders use this data to:

Gauge Market Depth: Understand the level of buying and selling pressure at different price points.

Anticipate Price Movements: Identify potential support and resistance levels.

Manage Risk: Set appropriate stop-loss orders based on Volume Profile levels.

Case Study: Volume Profile and the 2024 Oil price Surge

In late 2024, a significant surge in oil prices coincided with a clear break above a key HVN on the WTI August contract. Volume Profile analysis accurately identified this level as a potential catalyst for a bullish move. Traders who recognized this pattern were able to capitalize on the subsequent price increase. This demonstrates the practical application of Volume Profile in real-world trading scenarios.

Benefits of Incorporating Volume Profile Analysis

Improved Accuracy: Provides a more nuanced understanding of market dynamics then price action alone.

Enhanced Risk Management: Helps identify key levels for setting stop-loss orders.

Increased Profit Potential: Allows traders to identify high-probability trading opportunities.

Objective Decision-Making: Reduces emotional bias by focusing on data-driven insights.

Practical Tips for Using Volume Profile

1. Choose the Right Timeframe: Select a timeframe that aligns with your trading style (e.g., daily, weekly, hourly).
2. Combine with Other Indicators: Use Volume Profile in conjunction with other technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI) for confirmation.
3. backtest Your Strategies: Test your trading strategies using ancient data to assess their effectiveness.
4. Stay Updated: Monitor market news and events that could impact oil prices and volume.