Azerbaijan and Armenia Forge Path to Peace Treaty

Caucasus Stability Hinges on Economic Investment, Peace Deal

The South Caucasus region, long characterized by the protracted conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, could see a significant shift towards stability through a peace agreement bolstered by ample economic investment. For Armenia, in particular, embracing such a path promises considerable benefits.

Any third party taking the lead in brokering peace must prioritize economic development as a cornerstone for lasting stability. This involves directing efforts towards crucial infrastructure projects and reconstruction assistance in areas most affected by the conflict. A key focus should be on Azerbaijan’s territories previously occupied by Armenia, where the presence of over a million landmines, laid since the conflict’s inception in the 1990s, has considerably hampered reconstruction efforts. Addressing this formidable demining challenge is paramount.

Recent reports suggest active diplomatic engagement from the United States, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicating the Trump governance’s involvement in a peace deal for Azerbaijan and Armenia. This initiative is presented as part of a broader effort to foster regional peace, akin to the Abraham Accords.

Given the close alliance between Israel and Azerbaijan,it is plausible that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has urged President Trump and Secretary Rubio to facilitate the resolution of outstanding issues in the peace treaty negotiations,ensuring Azerbaijan’s terms are met.

The region awaits positive developments, hopeful for a new era of peace and prosperity in the South Caucasus.

How might external actors influence the negotiation and implementation of a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia?

Decades of Conflict: A Ancient Overview

The relationship between Azerbaijan and Armenia has been marked by decades of conflict, primarily centered around the Nagorno-Karabakh region. This mountainous enclave, internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but with a majority Armenian population, became a flashpoint after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s.

Early 1990s War: The First Nagorno-Karabakh War resulted in Armenian forces gaining control of nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding Azerbaijani territories.This led to a significant displacement of populations on both sides, creating a lasting humanitarian crisis.

Ceasefire Violations (1994-2020): A ceasefire was established in 1994, but it was frequently violated, leading to sporadic clashes and hindering any considerable progress towards a peaceful resolution. The “frozen conflict” persisted for over two decades.

2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War: A large-scale war erupted in 2020, resulting in a decisive Azerbaijani military victory. Azerbaijan regained control of significant territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh, and a Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement was signed. This agreement stipulated the deployment of Russian peacekeepers to the region.

Post-2020 Tensions: Despite the ceasefire, tensions remained high, with ongoing disputes over border demarcation, prisoner exchanges, and the future status of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The Road to Negotiations: key Players and Mediators

The recent push for a peace treaty hasn’t happened in a vacuum. Several key players and mediators have been instrumental in facilitating dialogue between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Azerbaijan: Represented by President Ilham aliyev, Azerbaijan has consistently maintained its territorial integrity as a non-negotiable principle.

armenia: Initially led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia has signaled a willingness to engage in negotiations based on mutual recognition and respect for sovereignty.

Russia: Historically a key mediator, Russia’s role has become more complex following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The effectiveness of Russian peacekeeping operations has also been questioned.

European Union (EU): The EU, thru its special representative, has actively engaged in mediation efforts, offering financial assistance and promoting dialogue.

United States (US): The US has also played a mediating role, emphasizing the need for a complete and lasting peace.

OSCE Minsk Group: While largely sidelined in recent years, the OSCE Minsk Group (co-chaired by France, Russia, and the US) previously held a mandate to mediate the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Core Elements of the Proposed Peace Treaty

The proposed peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia centers around several key elements, aiming to address the root causes of the conflict and establish a framework for long-term stability.

Border Demarcation: A crucial aspect of the treaty involves the precise demarcation of the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia.This process has been fraught with challenges, as both sides have differing interpretations of historical maps and territorial claims.

Mutual Recognition of Sovereignty: Both countries are expected to formally recognize each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, including Azerbaijan’s control over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Unblocking of Regional Transportation Routes: The treaty aims to unblock regional transportation routes, including the Zangezur corridor, which would connect Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenian territory. This is a sensitive issue, as Armenia seeks guarantees that the corridor will not infringe upon its sovereignty.

Protection of Rights and Security of Populations: Provisions are being discussed to ensure the protection of the rights and security of populations on both sides, including the Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Non-Use of Force: A commitment to refrain from the use of force or the threat of force against each other is a fundamental principle of the treaty.

Establishment of Diplomatic Relations: The treaty will likely include provisions for the establishment of full diplomatic relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Challenges and Obstacles to a lasting Peace

Despite the progress made, significant challenges and obstacles remain on the path to a lasting peace.

Domestic Political Opposition: Both in Azerbaijan and Armenia,there is domestic political opposition to certain aspects of the proposed treaty. Hardliners on both sides may resist concessions or compromises.

The Status of Nagorno-Karabakh: While Azerbaijan has regained control of Nagorno-Karabakh, the future status of the Armenian population remains a sensitive issue. Ensuring their rights and security is crucial for a sustainable peace.

External Interference: External actors with vested interests in the region could potentially undermine the peace process.

Trust Deficit: Decades of conflict have created a deep-seated trust deficit between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Building trust will require sustained dialogue and confidence-building measures.

Border Disputes: Ongoing disputes over border demarcation continue to pose a challenge.

Economic Opportunities and Regional Cooperation

A peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia could unlock significant economic opportunities and foster regional cooperation.

Trade and Investment: The opening of borders and transportation routes could boost trade and investment between the two countries and the wider region.

Energy Cooperation: Azerbaijan is a major energy producer, and cooperation with Armenia could lead to new energy projects and infrastructure development.

Tourism: The