Indonesia’s Hybrid Car Vision: 2050 Forecast

Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure: A Hurdle for Widespread Adoption, Hybrid Cars Poised for Dominance

Jakarta, Indonesia – The widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) faces a meaningful hurdle in establishing a charging infrastructure comparable to conventional gas stations, according to insights shared by industry expert Ignasius Jonan at the Gaikindo International Automotive Conference (GIAC). Jonan highlighted the immense challenges involved in replicating the ubiquitous presence of fuel stations, a task he described as “a big challenge.”

Drawing parallels to his past experience as Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources nine years prior, Jonan recalled a time when thousands of sub-districts across Indonesia lacked even basic gas stations. He emphasized the lengthy process required to construct a single gas station, posing an even greater logistical and developmental challenge for electric vehicle charging stations (SPKLU).

“In 2016, when I was still serving at ESDM, I had the opportunity to report to the president that out of the 7,500 sub-districts in Indonesia, there were 1,500 that had no gas stations,” Jonan stated. “Imagine, 71 years of Indonesian independence, and there were thousands of sub-districts that did not have basic fuel stations.” This historical context underscores the scale of the infrastructure deficit that needs to be overcome for EVs.

Furthermore, Jonan pointed to the unpreparedness of PLN, Indonesia’s primary electricity provider, to manage the ample power demands of a large EV fleet. He explained that the grid would require significant upgrades to support a massive influx of electric vehicles, particularly if charging occurs simultaneously and intensifies power consumption.

“If, such as, there are a million charging stations, and two million electric cars are plugged in together, and they are used day and night, then how many gigawatts would be needed to fulfill the electricity demand?” Jonan questioned. This scenario highlights the potential strain on the existing power grid.

Given these infrastructural and grid-related limitations, Jonan concluded that hybrid or Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) cars represent the most pragmatic and ideal choice for the Indonesian market for the foreseeable future. He believes that hybrid technology offers a viable transition solution, bridging the gap until EV charging infrastructure and electricity grid capacity can mature to support a fully electric automotive ecosystem.

Evergreen Insight: The automotive industry’s transition to electrification is a global phenomenon, but its pace and methodology are heavily influenced by localized infrastructure development and energy grid capabilities. Countries like Indonesia, with vast geographical areas and varied levels of infrastructure maturity, present unique challenges and opportunities. While battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) represent the long-term vision for decarbonization, hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles serve as crucial intermediate technologies, offering reduced emissions and fuel efficiency without the immediate constraints of charging availability. This makes them a strategic choice for markets navigating the complexities of infrastructure build-out, ensuring a smoother and more accessible path towards cleaner transportation.

What factors could hinder Indonesia from achieving its 2050 hybrid car vision?

The Current Landscape of Hybrid Vehicles in Indonesia

Indonesia’s automotive market is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by growing environmental concerns and government initiatives. While traditionally dominated by conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, the demand for hybrid cars and electric vehicles (EVs) is steadily increasing. Currently, the hybrid vehicle segment represents a relatively small, but rapidly expanding, portion of total car sales. Key players like Toyota, with models like the Prius and locally assembled hybrids, are leading the charge.

Market Share (2024): Hybrid vehicles accounted for approximately 5% of total car sales.

Growth Rate: A projected annual growth rate of 20-25% for the next five years.

Dominant models: Toyota dominates, followed by Honda and emerging local brands exploring hybrid technology.

this growth is fueled by rising fuel prices, increasing awareness of enduring transportation, and government incentives aimed at promoting eco-friendly vehicles. The Indonesian government has set aspiring targets for EV adoption, which inherently benefits the hybrid market as a transitional technology.

Government Policies & Incentives Driving Hybrid adoption

The Indonesian government is actively shaping the future of the automotive industry through a series of policies and incentives. These are crucial for accelerating the shift towards hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and ultimately, full EVs.

1. Tax Incentives: Reduced luxury tax for locally produced hybrid vehicles. This makes them more price-competitive compared too imported models.
2. Subsidies: Potential subsidies for the purchase of hybrid cars,particularly for public transportation fleets.
3. Infrastructure Development: Investment in charging infrastructure,even though currently focused on EVs,will indirectly benefit hybrid vehicles by increasing overall awareness and acceptance of electrified transportation.
4. emission Standards: Stricter emission standards for ICE vehicles, making hybrids a more attractive option for consumers and manufacturers. The Euro 4 emission standard is already in place, with plans for further tightening.
5. Local Content Requirements: Policies encouraging local manufacturing of hybrid components to boost the domestic automotive industry and reduce reliance on imports.

These policies are designed to create a favorable ecosystem for hybrid technology and encourage both consumers and manufacturers to embrace alternative fuel vehicles.

2050 Forecast: Hybrid Vehicle Penetration Scenarios

Predicting the future is always challenging, but several scenarios can be outlined based on current trends and anticipated developments. we’ll examine three potential pathways for hybrid car adoption in Indonesia by 2050.

Scenario 1: Moderate Growth (Conservative)

Hybrid Market share: 20-25%

Key Factors: Continued, but limited, government support. Slow infrastructure development. Consumer preference remains largely with ICE vehicles due to cost and range anxiety.

technology: Primarily full hybrid vehicles (FHEV) and mild hybrid vehicles (MHEV). Limited adoption of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) due to charging infrastructure limitations.

Scenario 2: Accelerated Growth (Most Likely)

Hybrid market Share: 40-50%

Key Factors: Strong and consistent government policies. Significant investment in charging infrastructure. Falling battery prices. Increased consumer awareness and acceptance of hybrid technology.

Technology: A balanced mix of FHEV, MHEV, and PHEV. Increased focus on locally manufactured hybrid components. Integration of smart charging technologies.

Scenario 3: Rapid Transformation (Optimistic)

Hybrid Market Share: 60-70%

Key Factors: aggressive government policies. Rapidly expanding charging infrastructure. Breakthroughs in battery technology leading to substantially lower costs and increased range. Widespread adoption of renewable energy sources to power the grid.

technology: Dominance of PHEV and potentially, range-extended hybrid vehicles.Advanced battery management systems. Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology enabling hybrids to contribute to grid stability.

Technological Advancements Shaping the Future of Indonesian Hybrids

Several key technological advancements will play a crucial role in shaping the future of hybrid vehicles in Indonesia.

Battery technology: Solid-state batteries are expected to offer higher energy density, faster charging times, and improved safety compared to current lithium-ion batteries. This will be a game-changer for PHEV range and overall hybrid performance.

Electric Motor Efficiency: Improvements in electric motor design and materials will lead to increased efficiency and reduced weight.

Power Electronics: Advanced power electronics will enable more efficient energy conversion and management within the hybrid powertrain.

Connectivity & Autonomous Driving: Integration of connected car technologies and autonomous driving features will enhance the overall driving experience and improve fuel efficiency.

Lightweight Materials: The use of lightweight materials like carbon fiber and aluminum will reduce vehicle weight,improving fuel economy and performance.

Challenges & Opportunities for Hybrid car Growth

Despite the positive outlook, several challenges need to be addressed to ensure the successful adoption of hybrid cars in Indonesia.

Challenges: