Mountain West Football’s Shifting Tides: Beyond Boise State’s Dominance
The Mountain West Conference in college football is on the cusp of a seismic shift, with a familiar powerhouse like Boise State facing an increasingly dynamic and unpredictable landscape of challengers. As the 2025 season looms, the question isn’t just if the Broncos will reign supreme, but who will rise to meet them, and how dramatically the pecking order could change.
The Broncos’ Reign: Stability Meets Elevated Expectations
Boise State enters 2025 as the conference’s presumed frontrunner, boasting short odds and a roster built for sustained success. Their sights are set not only on another conference title but on back-to-back playoff appearances. Quarterback Maddux Madsen returns, bolstered by a top-tier offensive line and a defense that proved stingy against conference opponents last season, allowing the fourth-fewest yards per play. Crucially, their schedule offers a significant advantage, with key matchups against UNLV, Fresno State, and Colorado State all hosted in Boise. Their toughest road tests are against rebuilding Air Force and Utah State. While the departure of star running back Ashon Jeanty leaves a void, the Broncos possess impressive depth with Sire Gaines and Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod ready to shoulder the load. Their +175 odds to make the College Football Playoff (CFP) are compelling, particularly given their 2024 CFP debut and a clear path to repeating as the top Group of 5 representative if they can navigate their schedule effectively, potentially even with a quality loss.
Challengers Emerge: San Jose State and Hawaii’s Ascending Prospects
Beneath Boise State’s consistent presence, other programs are quietly building momentum. San Jose State presents one of the most intriguing value bets of the season, with their win total set at OVER 7.5 (-115). The Spartans return nine starters from a team that finished 7-6, and their schedule offers a significant edge, notably avoiding both Boise State and UNLV during the regular season. Quarterback Walker Eley showed flashes of brilliance last year, particularly in the latter half of the season, leading an offense that ranked fifth in passing yards per game. While the defense has lost some key secondary players, the linebacker duo of Jordan Pollard and Tanala provides a strong defensive core. Head coach Ken Niumatalolo, a proven winner, has the pedigree and a clear path to success in San Jose. If they can solidify their run game, they could certainly contend for a spot in the conference title game.
Hawaii also appears poised for a breakthrough. The Warriors’ win total of OVER 6.5 (-135) is attractive, especially with redshirt freshman quarterback Micah Bowens. Bowens demonstrated remarkable potential in his first start, throwing for 469 yards and five touchdowns against New Mexico, and now steps into the full-time role with capable targets. Head coach Timmy Chang, a former Run-and-Shoot standout, is assembling a roster that fits his offensive philosophy. The defense returns seven starters and is expected to improve under coordinator Dennis Thurman. With a favorable schedule that avoids Boise State and features seven winnable home games, Hawaii could realistically aim for bowl eligibility and perhaps even flirt with eight wins if their offensive line can hold up.
The Wild Cards: UNLV’s Reset and Air Force’s Enduring Grit
UNLV finds itself in a precarious position, caught between high expectations and a significant roster overhaul under new coach Dan Mullen. The Rebels are banking on an influx of talent, but continuity is a major question mark, particularly with only two starters returning and a complete reset on the offensive line. The quarterback competition between Virginia transfer Anthony Colandrea and Michigan’s Alex Orji adds another layer of uncertainty. While Jai’den Thomas is a proven running back, the rebuilt offensive line may not create the same lanes as last year. Similarly, the defense faces a complete reshuffling. Their schedule includes challenging road trips to Boise State and Colorado State, plus late-season matchups against San Diego State and Fresno State when attrition typically sets in. Despite exciting individual pieces, an UNDER 8.5 wins (-130) bet seems prudent, suggesting an 8-4 or even 7-5 finish might be more realistic than the 9-3 hype.
Air Force, a perennial thorn in the side of Mountain West opponents, is worth monitoring. Despite finishing 5-7 last year, they closed the season on a four-game winning streak and are returning to their foundational identity with experience in the trenches. Head coach Troy Calhoun rarely endures consecutive losing seasons. The offense retains key players, including fullback Dylan Carson and three offensive linemen, which is crucial for their system. While quarterback play is a question mark, the team’s floor remains high. They avoid Boise State and have winnable road games at New Mexico and Wyoming. Though the -200 odds for their win total (OVER 5.5) seem steep, Air Force remains a team to watch for strategic bets, potentially as underdogs or on manageable spreads.
Navigating the Shifting Landscape
The 2025 Mountain West season promises to be anything but predictable. Boise State’s dominance is a known quantity, but the emergence of San Jose State and Hawaii, coupled with UNLV’s ambitious rebuild and Air Force’s consistent resilience, creates a compelling narrative. A few key upsets or late-season collapses could dramatically alter the conference title race, making this a season where staying informed and understanding team dynamics will be crucial for any college football enthusiast.
What are your predictions for the Mountain West Conference’s 2025 season? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
