Optimizing Your College Football Strategy: Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica’s Week 3 Study Guide

College Football Week 3: What We’re Watching For – From Tennessee-Georgia to Notre Dame’s CFP Hopes

The Week 2 slate wasn’t incredible, but we learned a ton about some marquee teams. True freshman QB phenom bryce Underwood and No. 15 Michigan fell to No. 18 Oklahoma in Norman, No. 3 LSU gritted out a 23-7 win against unranked Louisiana Tech, No. 4 Georgia struggled against FCS Austin Peay in a 28-6 victory, Dan Lanning dropped 69 points and held Mike Gundy to three in a Big 10 vs. Big 12 matchup, and No. 12 Arizona State lost a heart-breaker in Starkville to unranked Mississippi State. 

With weekends like that one, lengthy discussions ensue between myself and the fine people at FOX Sports every week as we plan our production for Big Noon Kickoff. Every Sunday night, I reflect on what’s to come, and send out a lengthy email to producers, researchers, and my colleagues on air about things to watch out for. 

I’ve decided to peel back the curtain and share those thoughts with you all, as everyone should rejoice in the splendor that is college football. week 3 is now here, and while this week’s slate isn’t as eye-popping, there are few sneaky ones to discuss and highlight. 

So, with that being said, let’s dive into my thoughts for this weekend.

Big matchup in Knoxville

We have a massive SEC matchup with the No. 15 Vols hosting the No. 6 Bulldogs on Saturday. Georgia has had some injuries on the offensive line, with Juan Gaston, Earnest Greene and Malachi Tolliver all on the injury report. They struggled to run the ball and the passing game hasn’t been very remarkable, with most of Gunner Stockton’s throws coming in the screen variety. That’s going to have to change if they expect to win in Knoxville this week. The game has all the makings of what Michigan at Oklahoma was last week-ugly and low scoring.

How ’bout them Ducks?

Oregon has looked incredibly impressive through two weeks, beating Montana State 59-13 and then taking down Oklahoma State 69-3. dante Moore has been a big reason for their success, averaging 239.5 pass yards per game with a 6-0 TD-INT ratio in limited play due to the large nature of their victories. People forget he was a five-star recruit in the class of 2023 and the fourth-ranked player in the class, according to 247Sports. He spent his freshman season at UCLA where he threw for 1,610 yards along with 11 TDs and 9 INTs. He sat behind Dillon Gabriel last year and it seems to have made a huge impact on his growth. I like Oregon to continue their dominance against Northwestern on Big Noon Kickoff this saturday.

Yellow Jackets host Tigers

Georgia Tech is a lot better than people realize. Haynes King is a legitimate dual threat quarterback and Brent Key’s defense showed up against Colorado in the opener. Actually,Key nearly beat No. 6 Georgia last season-losing a 44-42 OT thriller. Before that, they took down a No. 4 Miami team that was led by Cam Ward in a 28-23 victory as well as No. 10 florida State in the first game of the season. While Clemson’s defense is full of future first round picks, the Tigers have not impressed thus far-scoring 10 points against LSU and then squeaking out a 27-16 win against Troy. The Trojans were actually up 16-0 in that game. It could be a good one in Atlanta.

Crucial game for the Irish

Does Notre Dame have to win this game to make the CFP? A 10-2 irish squad with losses to Miami and A&M surely wouldn’t have the resume to stack up with others at the end of the year, right? Their best win would potentially be USC in that scenario, likely making this the only chance at a ranked win the rest of the way. The 16th ranked Aggies haven’t looked too strong themselves, giving up 24 points to UTSA and 22 to utah State. still, Marcel Reed and LeVeon Moss are an electric QB-RB duo that should prove to be a big test for Marcus Freeman’s defense.

Not so fast

Are Utah or LSU not as good as we thought? The Utes took down UCLA 43-10 in their opener while the Tigers took down Clemson in theirs. But the Bruins lost to UNLV this week and Dabo Swinney’s bunch were struggling against Troy as we mentioned above. I’m not sure how much we learn about either team this week, as Brian Kelly’s squad plays a Florida team that just lost to South Florida and Kyle whittingham’s takes on wyoming.I do believe Devon Dampier is an incredible player, though.he’s completing 79% of his passes and rushed for 112 yards with no turnovers and 6 total TD’s.

Cyclones could roll

Speaking of teams that I’m unsure of, Iowa State is 3-0 but scraped out three-point wins against kansas State and Iowa along with a victory over South Dakota. With arkansas State this week and then a very favorable Big 12 schedule including the likes of arizona, Cincinnati, Colorado, and Oklahoma State- Matt Campbell’s team is going to be favored in the next six games or so. I think they’ll likely drop one somewhere along the way given the closeness of the wins they have,but it’s worth noting nonetheless.

Tough times for gator nation

billy Napier really couldn’t afford to lose to South Florida this week, as the Gators have an absolute gauntlet for the rest of their schedule. How many more games will they be favored in? Their next four games are no. 3 LSU, No.5 Miami, No. 7 Texas, and no. 16 A&M.then they get a home game against Mississippi State (which did just beat No. 12 ASU as I mentioned earlier), and then No.6 Georgia, Kentucky, No. 17 Ole Miss, No. 15 Tennessee and No. 10 Florida State. There’s a serious chance Napier is out during the bye week if they lose in a ugly fashion at Baton Rouge and Miami. DJ Lagway hasn’t impressed like people thought he would either.

Boomer Sooner

Can Oklahoma really do this with John Mateer all season? He had a whopping 19 carries for 74 rush yards and two scores last week against a solid Michigan defense, and has totaled 760 yards of offence in two games. Aren’t they going to need Jadyn Ott or some else to step up? It’ll be interesting to see how long he can shoulder this load against the defenses coming up on the schedule. This is probably more a talking point for next week though, when they play Auburn.

The ACC this past week

The ACC and Big 12 are trying to step up as a whole as conferences-and yes, Miami beat Notre Dame in Week 1 while Utah and Iowa State got some nice non-conference wins, but they are both so far behind the Big Ten and SEC as a whole. 

Clemson was in a battle with Troy which further highlighted their shortcomings-Dabo really thought he could go with a converted wide receiver at running back? Then there’s Duke who committed four high leverage turnovers in an embarrassing loss to Illinois. Louisville slopped past James Madison in a 28-14 slugfest. Rhett Lashlee’s SMU squad blew a late double-digit lead in a home OT loss to Baylor, and Syracuse needed a miracle to beat UConn in OT as well. Don’t forget about Virginia Tech who lost by 22 to Vanderbilt either,after Brent Pry punted and 4th and a foot.

The Big 12 this past week

How does meticulously studying coaching histories inform your assessment of a team’s potential performance in a given week?

Key Matchups & Point Spreads to Watch

Week 3 of college football frequently enough separates the contenders from the pretenders. Chris fallica,affectionately known as “The Bear,” consistently provides insightful analysis. This guide breaks down key games, leveraging his approach to help you refine your college football picks and betting strategy. Point spreads, over/unders, and money lines are current as of September 10th, 2025, and sourced from major sportsbooks.

Power Five Showdowns: Analyzing the Lines

Alabama (-7) at South Carolina: The Crimson Tide are road favorites,but South Carolina’s home-field advantage shouldn’t be underestimated. Fallica emphasizes looking beyond the name recognition. Consider South Carolina covering the spread, especially if their quarterback, LaNorris Sellers, can limit turnovers. Key stat to watch: South Carolina’s rushing defense.

georgia (-14.5) vs. Florida: The annual rivalry game. Georgia is heavily favored, but Florida has shown flashes of offensive potential. Fallica often points to special teams as a crucial factor in rivalry games. A blocked punt or a long return could swing momentum. Look for Georgia to establish the run early.

Ohio State (-10) at Notre Dame: A massive non-conference clash. Notre Dame’s defense will be tested. Fallica stresses the importance of identifying mismatches in the passing game. Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. will be a primary target. Consider the over/under if both offenses can find a rhythm.

Oregon (-6.5) vs. Texas Tech: Oregon’s high-powered offense faces a Texas Tech team known for its passing attack. This game has shootout potential. fallica would advise looking at prop bets on total passing yards for both quarterbacks.

USC (-3.5) at Arizona State: USC is still finding its footing under Lincoln Riley. Arizona State, while rebuilding, can be risky at home. Fallica often highlights the importance of turnover margin in games involving unproven teams.

Fallica’s Framework: Beyond the Box score

“The Bear” doesn’t just look at stats; he dives deep into situational football. here’s how to apply his principles:

1. Coaching Matchups & Game planning

Offensive vs. Defensive Philosophies: Does a pass-heavy offense face a strong secondary? A run-first team against a stout defensive line? Understanding these matchups is critical.

Coaching Tendencies: Is a coach known for aggressive play-calling or a conservative approach? How do they handle adversity? Fallica meticulously studies coaching histories.

Special Teams Analysis: Kickoff and punt return yardage, field goal percentage, and blocking schemes can significantly impact game outcomes. Don’t overlook this often-underestimated aspect.

2. Injury Reports & Depth Chart Analysis

Key Player Absences: A starting quarterback, running back, or defensive lineman being sidelined can drastically alter a team’s performance. Stay updated on the latest college football injury reports.

Backup Quality: How reliable are the backups? Do they have experience? Fallica emphasizes the importance of evaluating depth.

Hidden Injuries: Sometimes, players are listed as “available” but are playing through injuries that limit their effectiveness. Pay attention to pre-game reports and social media chatter.

3.Situational Spots & Travel Considerations

Look-Ahead Games: Is a team facing a tough opponent next week and potentially overlooking their current opponent?

Trap Games: A strong team playing a weaker opponent after a big win can be vulnerable to an upset.

travel Fatigue: Long road trips can take a toll on players, especially early in the season. Consider the impact of travel distance and time zone changes.

Advanced Metrics & Data-Driven Insights

While Fallica relies on his experience and intuition, he also incorporates advanced metrics into his analysis.

SP+ (Sports Performance Plus): Developed by Bill Connelly, SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of how many points a team scores and allows per drive. it’s a strong predictor of future performance.