Donald Trump’s unpredictable policy pronouncements are prompting a reassessment of national priorities and driving investment toward companies focused on foundational needs like energy, security, and industrial strength, according to Orbis Investments director Alec Cutler.
Cutler, a veteran portfolio manager with three decades of experience, described the former US president as a “governmental random number generator,” highlighting the difficulty in anticipating policy shifts under his leadership. “You never know what he is going to tweet,” Cutler said in a July 2025 interview, noting that such pronouncements can be either expected or “a two-by-four against the side of the head” for companies in his portfolio.
This environment, Cutler explained, necessitates a diversified investment strategy and a focus on companies positioned to benefit from a global shift toward national self-reliance. He noted that nations are increasingly focused on shoring up foundational needs after years of prioritizing aspirational goals. This rebalancing, he suggests, began before Trump’s presidency but has been accelerated by his policies.
Cutler’s firm is currently examining companies like Lululemon, which has experienced stock price declines due to tariff uncertainty and softening consumer demand. The team is also considering the potential impact of retaliatory tariffs from countries like Canada on imported apparel, a factor previously given less weight in investment decisions.
The shift in focus reflects a broader trend away from globalization and toward national security, with nations reassessing their dependence on global supply chains. Cutler’s investment approach centers on identifying undervalued companies in cyclical downturns, but now includes a heightened awareness of potential government intervention and its influence on future growth. Five years ago, government intervention wasn’t a primary consideration; now, Cutler checks social media feeds immediately upon waking to anticipate potential disruptions.
Cutler’s analysis, outlined in a February 4, 2026 article, posits that the current rebalancing is not merely a reaction to Trump’s policies, but a long-term correction following decades of prioritizing higher-order needs. He draws a parallel to Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, arguing that nations, like individuals, must secure basic necessities – military, energy, and industrial security – before pursuing more aspirational goals.
The fund manager’s observations align with a growing recognition that the post-Cold War era of globalization and free trade is undergoing a fundamental shift. The focus on self-reliance and security is driving investment toward sectors deemed essential for national resilience, a trend Cutler believes will continue regardless of future political developments.
