The 2026 PGA Tour season’s Florida Swing begins this week with the Cognizant Classic at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. Following Signature Events, this tournament presents a different challenge with a field that lacks the top players in the game, positioned as it is between larger events. The course itself has undergone significant changes, impacting scoring conditions and strategy.
PGA National, originally designed by George and Tom Fazio in the early 1980s and later redesigned by Jack Nicklaus in 1990 with subsequent tweaks, has seen a shift in difficulty. While champions once barely reached double-digits under par, recent winners have posted significantly lower scores. Chris Kirk won with a score of 14 under par four seasons ago, while Austin Eckroat won in 2024 at 17 under, and Joe Highsmith was last year’s champion at 19 under. A key change has been the conversion of the 10th hole from a challenging par 4 to a more accessible par 5. Overseeding with winter Ryegrass has also softened the fairways, reducing the penalty for errant shots.
Adding to the complexity, wind is expected to play a factor, with forecasts predicting speeds of 10-15 mph. With water hazards on 15 of the 18 holes, a strong breeze could significantly increase the difficulty. According to expert prognosticator Brady Kannon, the course demands accuracy, ball striking, and scrambling ability. Kannon’s analysis focuses on Strokes Gained: Approach, Off the Tee, and Ball Striking, as well as Good Drives Gained, Scrambling, and Hole Proximity from 125-200 yards.
Six Players to Watch at PGA National
Kannon identifies six players who fit the profile for success at the Cognizant Classic, drawing parallels to successful players at correlated courses like Bay Hill, Innisbrook, TPC Sawgrass, Waialae, and venues from the Canadian Open, as well as those who have performed well at The Open Championship. Here are his picks:
- Daniel Berger (40-1): The Florida State Seminole has a strong history at PGA National, including a playoff loss in 2015 and two fourth-place finishes in 2020 and 2022. He excels in ball-striking, wind play, and driving accuracy, and ranks eighth in Hole Proximity from 150-175 yards over the last 24 rounds.
- Aaron Rai (40-1): Rai is another accurate ball-striker comfortable in windy conditions. He has recorded finishes of 14th at Hamilton Golf & Country Club (Canadian Open, 2024), 13th at St. George’s (Canadian Open, 2022), and 19th at Royal St. George’s (The Open Championship, 2021). He currently ranks 12th in Strokes Gained: Approach, seventh in Bogey Avoidance, and first in Good Drives Gained.
- Haotong Li (49-1): Li has shown recent good form, with eighth and 11th place finishes on the PGA Tour this season and top-10 finishes on the DP World Tour. He is eighth on Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 17th in Total Driving, and 19th in Scrambling, and has twice finished in the top 4 at The Open Championship.
- Jordan Smith (60-1): Smith currently ranks fifth in Total Driving, sixth in Greens in Regulation, and first in Ball Striking on the PGA Tour. He finished 16th in Phoenix and had strong finishes on the DP World Tour at the end of 2025.
- Mackenzie Hughes (62-1): Hughes is a strong scrambler, ranking second in that category over the last 24 rounds. He finished sixth at the Open Championship at Royal St. George’s in 2021, was runner-up at the Cognizant Classic in 2020, and has recorded top-15 finishes at the Canadian Open.
- Emiliano Grillo (85-1): Grillo has a history of success at PGA National, with an eighth-place finish in 2018, and has also performed well at Bay Hill and The Players Championship. He ranks 14th in Bogey Avoidance, 13th in Hole Proximity from 125-150 yards, and seventh in Good Drives Gained. He has twice finished 12th and was sixth at The Open Championship in 2023.
The Cognizant Classic promises a compelling test of golf, demanding precision and adaptability from players navigating the challenging layout and potential wind conditions. The field, while lacking some of the game’s biggest names, presents opportunities for those who excel in the key areas Kannon has identified.
As the Florida Swing continues, players will face increasingly demanding courses and conditions. The performance at PGA National will provide valuable insights into form and preparation for upcoming events like the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill and The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass.
What are your thoughts on these picks? Share your predictions in the comments below!
