Global food security is facing a fresh threat as escalating tensions in the Middle East disrupt vital shipping lanes. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global trade, is raising concerns about fertilizer supplies and, the price of staple foods worldwide. The crisis stems from retaliatory actions following recent US-Israeli strikes on Iran, including the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, according to reports from Wikipedia.
Between a quarter and a third of the world’s trade in raw materials essential for fertilizer production passes through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside approximately 20% of all seaborne crude oil and gas. This disruption is already impacting the transport of key ingredients like ammonia and nitrogen, vital components in synthetic fertilizers and could lead to significant challenges for farmers and consumers alike. The situation is particularly concerning as spring planting season begins in key agricultural regions.
Fertilizer Supply Chain Under Pressure
Roughly half of global food production relies on synthetic nitrogen, making fertilizer availability crucial for maintaining crop yields. A reduction in fertilizer supply would inevitably lead to lower yields and increased prices for everyday staples such as bread, pasta, and potatoes, as well as higher costs for animal feed. The Gulf region itself is home to some of the world’s largest fertilizer production facilities, meaning a prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz could severely disrupt production and drive up costs.
Iran is a significant player in the global fertilizer market, ranking as the fourth-largest exporter of urea – the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer – after Russia, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. However, the ability to manufacture fertilizer is increasingly affected by both the availability of raw materials and the rising cost of energy, with fossil gas representing 60% to 80% of nitrogen fertilizer production costs. Further compounding the issue, shutdowns of fossil gas plants in the Gulf, including Qatar’s largest facility following a drone attack, are expected to further constrict the global nitrogen supply.
Price Surges Echo 2022
The current crisis is evoking memories of the fertilizer price surges experienced in early 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Egyptian urea prices, a key benchmark, have already risen by more than 25%, reaching $625 (£467) per metric tonne as of March 1, 2026, up from $484-$490 the previous week, according to Al Jazeera. Chris Lawson of CRU Group notes that the Middle East accounts for approximately 45% of global trade in sulphur, a critical raw material for fertilizer, as well as various metals and industrial chemicals.
“Although there are many parallels to 2022, the supply and demand implications of the conflict in the Middle East have the potential to be much more severe and wide ranging, particularly if the strait of Hormuz is restricted for longer than two weeks,” Lawson stated.
Shipping Attacks and Regional Instability
The situation on the water is increasingly volatile. A container ship reported being hit by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, resulting in a fire, according to The Times of Israel. This incident follows previous attacks and reports of at least two crew members killed. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has claimed responsibility for attacks on vessels, and has issued threats to set ships ablaze attempting to transit the strait.
Impact on Farmers and Consumers
Farmers are already feeling the effects of the instability. Tom Bradshaw, president of the National Farmers’ Union, reports that producers are experiencing immediate price volatility. “We are seeing immediate price volatility but at this stage, It’s too early to say how the UK may be impacted in the medium term,” Bradshaw said. Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara, the world’s second-largest fertilizer producer, emphasized the financial strain on farmers, stating, “Farmers were already in a challenging situation before this and were struggling with narrow margins.” He called for increased government support to help food producers cope with rising input costs.
The UK currently meets approximately 40% of its nitrogen fertilizer needs domestically, relying on imports for the remainder. Any reduction in fertilizer availability will likely translate to lower crop yields, further driving up food prices. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, food and non-alcoholic drink prices in the UK soared by 16.5% in the year to November 2022, according to the Office for National Statistics.
The situation remains fluid and highly sensitive. Continued disruption to the Strait of Hormuz will undoubtedly exacerbate existing pressures on the global food system, potentially leading to further price increases and food security concerns. Monitoring developments in the region and assessing the long-term impact on fertilizer production and supply chains will be critical in the coming weeks and months.
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