Qatar halted liquefied natural gas (LNG) production Monday as the conflict involving Iran escalated, with the country’s energy minister warning that a wider shutdown of Gulf energy exports is likely within weeks if the fighting continues and drives oil prices to $150 a barrel.
Minister of State for Energy Affairs and CEO of QatarEnergy, Saad al-Kaabi, told the Financial Times that all Gulf energy producers are likely to invoke force majeure – a clause freeing companies from contractual obligations due to extraordinary events – if the current situation persists. “Everybody who has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days if this continues,” al-Kaabi said.
Qatar’s LNG production alone accounts for roughly 20 percent of global supply, playing a critical role in meeting demand in both Asian and European markets, according to Al Jazeera. The disruption comes as Iranian attacks have increasingly targeted energy infrastructure, contributing to rising gas prices and global alarm.
Al-Kaabi warned that a prolonged conflict would have significant global economic consequences. “If this war continues for a few weeks, GDP growth around the world will be impacted,” he stated. He predicted widespread energy price increases and shortages of various products, leading to disruptions in manufacturing and supply chains. “Everybody’s energy price is going to go higher. There will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply,” he said.
Even a swift resolution to the conflict would not result in an immediate return to normal operations, al-Kaabi indicated. He estimated it would take “weeks to months” for Qatar to restore its LNG deliveries to previous levels. The Qatar Tribune reported that al-Kaabi also anticipates delays to QatarEnergy’s North Field expansion project, which was slated to begin production in mid-2026.
“It will delay all our expansion plans for sure,” al-Kaabi told the Financial Times. “If we approach back in a week, perhaps the effect is minimal; if it’s a month or two, it is different.”
Brent crude oil rose to $89.17 a barrel on Friday, a 4.4% increase from the previous day’s close, following al-Kaabi’s warnings, according to the BBC. He further cautioned that if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – a vital oil export route – is blocked, crude prices could surge to $150 a barrel within two to three weeks. Al-Kaabi also expects gas prices to rise to $40 per million British thermal units.
Approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil supply typically transits the Strait of Hormuz daily, and current events have left around 200 tankers stranded, the BBC reported. While the UAE and Saudi Arabia possess pipelines that bypass the strait, analysts warn that continued threats to shipping will likely drive up both oil prices and shipping costs.
