A trilateral signing ceremony hosted by President Donald Trump at the White House on August 8, 2025, formalized a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, a development that could reshape the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus. The agreement, still awaiting ratification by both nations’ parliaments, aims to resolve decades of conflict centered on the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
The agreement represents a significant departure from previous attempts at mediation, largely due to the absence of Russian involvement. For centuries, Russia has wielded considerable influence in the region, often exploiting tensions between the two countries to maintain control. The current accord, brokered by the United States, effectively sidelines Moscow, opening the possibility of a new trade route to Europe that bypasses both Russia, and Iran.
This new route, dubbed the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP), is a key component of the agreement. It envisions connecting Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan through Armenian territory. According to the agreement, TRIPP will allow for the passage of people and goods across Azerbaijan and Central Asia to Europe. The prospect has drawn condemnation from both Tehran and Moscow, who view it as an encroachment on their regional influence.
The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh dates back centuries. Historically inhabited by Armenians, the region was incorporated into Soviet Azerbaijan in 1921 as an autonomous oblast. As the Soviet Union dissolved in the late 1980s, tensions escalated, culminating in a full-scale war in 1992. Armenian forces gained control of the enclave and surrounding territories, displacing hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis. A Russian-brokered ceasefire in 1994 established a fragile peace, with Karabakh administered by Azerbaijan but controlled by Armenian forces.
That uneasy peace was shattered in 2020 with a 44-day war that saw Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey, reclaim significant territory. A subsequent Russian-brokered ceasefire led to the deployment of Russian peacekeepers. By 2023, Azerbaijan had intensified its control over Karabakh, culminating in an offensive that led to the dissolution of the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh and the exodus of over 100,000 ethnic Armenians. Intermittent armed attacks and border skirmishes continued to plague the region in the lead-up to the current agreement.
The current framework includes Armenia relinquishing its claims to Nagorno-Karabakh. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio characterized the announcement as “historic,” while European Union High Representative Kaja Kallas described it as “a decisive step.”
In February 2026, Vice President J.D. Vance visited both Armenia and Azerbaijan, solidifying the administration’s commitment to the peace process. In Baku, Vance signed a strategic partnership charter covering areas such as economy, trade, energy, and security. In Armenia, the U.S. Pledged support for nuclear energy, computer chips, and drone technology. Vance emphasized the need for Azerbaijan to uphold democratic institutions and the rule of law as part of the security agreement.
While the agreement represents a significant breakthrough, challenges remain. Azerbaijan’s recent actions in Karabakh have raised concerns about its commitment to protecting the rights of ethnic Armenians. Iran, which shares a border with both countries, has expressed strong opposition to the TRIPP project and the increased U.S. Influence in the region. On March 6, 2026, Azeri authorities alleged that Tehran launched drone attacks, including on the Azerbaijani region of Nakhchivan, a claim Iran denies. Nakhchivan is a critical component of the TRIPP proposal.
The U.S. Administration is now focused on ensuring the full implementation of the agreement and preventing any attempts by Russia or Iran to destabilize the region. The future of the South Caucasus hinges on the continued commitment of all parties to prioritize peace and cooperation over centuries-old animosities.
