BOGOTÁ – Colombia’s newly elected Congress, set to take office on July 20th, faces an immediate and significant challenge: a proposed national constituent assembly championed by outgoing President Gustavo Petro. The push for a new constitution comes after recent legislative elections where Petro’s political party, the Pacto Histórico, emerged as the leading force in the Senate, though without an outright majority. The assembly proposal, initiated before the March 9th elections, requires the signatures of at least 5% of the electoral roll – over 2 million votes – to proceed.
Petro has framed the assembly as a means to “restore what the oligarchy took away” from the 1991 constitution, but the initiative has sparked concerns about potential radical changes to Colombia’s political framework and the separation of powers. The incoming Congress will be tasked with reviewing the collected signatures and considering the proposed legislation, a process that will quickly define the relationship between the executive and legislative branches.
The outcome hinges on the complex political landscape shaped by the recent elections. While the Pacto Histórico secured the most votes in the Senate with 4.4 million, according to preliminary counts, the new legislature remains fragmented. This necessitates coalition-building and negotiation to achieve the 52 votes needed for a majority decision on the constituent assembly.
A Divided Senate: Assessing the Balance of Power
An initial assessment of the ideological positions of the 102 senators who will assume their positions on July 20th reveals a complex dynamic surrounding Petro’s proposal. The Pacto Histórico currently commands the support of at least 47 senators, including the 25 newly elected members led by former minister Carolina Corcho. Still, this number as well includes legislators from independent benches who have previously supported the government’s agenda or have been implicated in corruption scandals, according to reporting by El Colombiano.
Among those potentially aligned with Petro are senators from the Liberal and Conservative parties, including María Eugenia Lopera, Camilo Andrés Torres, Wadith Manzur, and Daniel Restrepo Carmona. Members of the Green Alliance, such as Ariel Ávila and Duvalier Sánchez, along with representatives from La U, including Wilmer Carrillo and Antonio José Correa, are also considered potential supporters. The indigenous representatives, led by Senator Martha Peralta, are also expected to back the initiative.
In contrast, opposition forces are expected to control 41 Senate seats, led by the Democratic Center party with 17 senators under Andrés Forero. They are bolstered by allies in traditional parties and the Salvación Nacional movement, which secured three new seats and supports presidential candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, a vocal opponent of the current government. Within the Liberal party, President of the Senate Lidio García and Alix Yirley Vargas are seen as potential opponents, while Nadia Blel and David Barguil from the Conservative party, and Norma Hurtado and Alfredo Deluque from La U, are also expected to vote against the assembly.
The Role of Independents and the Senate Presidency
The balance of power may ultimately rest with approximately 14 independent or undecided senators. Within the Liberal party, Yesid Pulgar and Óscar Sánchez León are seen as leaning towards supporting the constituent assembly, while Luis Carlos Rúa and Luis Alfonso Mejía Núñez from the Green Alliance remain uncertain. In the Conservative party, Juan Carlos García and Johnnatan Alexis Tamayo are potential swing votes, and John Moisés Besaile, Ana Paola García, and María Irma Noreña from La U are also considered undecided. The votes of some members of the Mira party, including Manuel Antonio Virgüez and Carlos Eduardo Guevara, are also uncertain.
A key factor in the debate will be the presidency of the Senate. Traditionally, the presidency rotates among parties based on the results of the elections. As the Pacto Histórico received the most votes – 4.4 million – in the recent elections, as reported by The Associated Press, a member of the ruling coalition is likely to control the Senate’s agenda during the crucial period when the constituent assembly proposal is considered.
What’s Next for Colombia’s Political Future?
Whether Petro’s push for a constituent assembly will succeed remains to be seen. The incoming Congress will be a critical battleground for this debate, and the outcome will have profound implications for Colombia’s political future. The coming months will be marked by intense negotiations and maneuvering as the different political forces seek to secure the votes needed to achieve their objectives. The debate over the assembly is likely to dominate the political agenda and shape the trajectory of Petro’s presidency.
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