Shares of Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) continued to climb Thursday, trading around $114.20, as investment bank William Blair reiterated its “outperform” rating on the stablecoin issuer. The firm’s assessment comes after a rally that has seen Circle’s stock increase roughly 126% since a low point in February.
Analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury at William Blair attributed the stock’s recent strength to factors beyond broader macroeconomic trends. “It is tempting to ascribe recent strength to surging oil prices and perhaps a more hawkish Fed,” they wrote in a note to clients. “We think there is more at play, however, including USDC market cap resilience despite a crypto drawdown and growing appreciation of Circle’s economic model and stablecoin infrastructure leadership.”
The firm’s positive outlook contrasts with the recent performance of other crypto-linked equities, which have largely tracked the downturn in digital asset prices. Companies such as Coinbase (COIN) have often mirrored movements in bitcoin, and in some cases experienced sharper declines during periods of market stress.
William Blair’s assessment highlights a growing recognition of Circle’s position within the stablecoin ecosystem. According to the firm, USDC is positioned to become a dominant standard in cross-border commerce, benefiting from its liquidity, early market entry, and integration with various crypto networks. This perspective aligns with a report from Mizuho, which suggested the rally may be linked to rising oil prices and potential impacts on Federal Reserve policy.
Analysts at William Blair also pointed to increasing activity within Circle’s payments and infrastructure offerings, including its stablecoin payments network, as evidence of a developing market for stablecoin-based settlements. The firm believes Circle’s infrastructure for minting, cross-chain transfers, and payment orchestration could create a competitive advantage as the sector matures.
Circle’s current revenue model relies heavily on interest earned from USDC reserves, but analysts anticipate a shift as the company expands its blockchain and payment infrastructure. William Blair initiated research coverage of Circle on March 10, 2026, noting the company’s role in a “seismic shift” in global finance, according to a report from CoinCentral. The firm estimates the global cross-border business payments market at approximately $20 trillion, presenting a significant opportunity for Circle.
The report also noted Circle’s Arc blockchain, which currently has 100 participants and is slated for a mainnet launch in 2026, with potential exploration of a native token. Transaction volume has increased substantially, with trailing 12-month total payment volume (TPV) up 101x to an annualized $3.4 billion, driving higher fees.
Despite a premium valuation and limited near-term catalysts, William Blair recommends investors consider buying Circle shares during periods of weakness. The firm’s analysis suggests that competing proprietary stablecoins will struggle to match the scale and liquidity of USDC.
