The exceptional and unsustainable inflation of prices in Tunisia and the reduction in the purchasing power of citizens cannot be attributed solely to the shock linked to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The year 2022 has been an economic gloom that puts off the possibility of an economic recovery that has been resonating for years.
But we cannot speak of economic gloom without mentioning one of the main triggering factors. It is about the galloping inflation (9.8% in November), this rise in consumer prices which is reducing the purchasing power of a very large segment of the population and inflating the functioning of small and medium-sized enterprises and therefore undermines their investment capacity.
Price development
According to the indicators provided by the BCT, the general index of family consumer prices registered, during the month of September 2022, an increase of 1.1%, against +0.4% a month earlier, and this in connection with the increase in the prices of food products (+2.2% against +1.4% the previous month) and the prices of manufactured products (+0.8% against -0.5%).
However, service charges slowed down (+0.5% vs. 0.8% the previous month).
Year-on-year, the increase in the inflation rate reached 9.8% in November 2022, against 8.6% a month earlier and 6.2% in September 2021. This trend is mainly attributable to the acceleration in the prices of manufactured products (+9.4% against +7.2%) and services (+6.1% against +4.2%). At the same time, the prices of food products went up sharply, rising to 13% against 7.2%, from one year to the next.
During the first nine months of 2022, average inflation stood at 7.8% against 5.5% a year earlier.
The core inflation rate (excluding food and energy) increased to 7.3% after 7.1% the previous month. The prices of free products (not supervised) increased by 10.4% over one year. The prices of framed products increased by 5.2%. Free food products increased by 15.4% against 0.5% for food products at regulated prices.
This upward trend is induced by certain external factors, in particular the increase in demand in international markets, especially after the health crisis, accentuated by the effects of the war in Ukraine, which led to an increase in oil prices. Wheat prices also exploded due to the weight of Russia and Ukraine in world wheat production: (approximately 30%). But the effect of these factors on inflation remains relatively limited, given the compensation
Inflationary pressures would therefore remain active due to internal factors that are currently amplifying pressures on consumer prices. Thus, the weakness of the economy’s production potential in the face of progressive demand is a source of inflationary pressure that could sustain the significant upward effects from outside.