2023-07-10 22:08:00
In its first survey after the closing of the lists, the consultancy Zuban Cordoba and Associates found that Sergio Massa and Javier Milei would compete head to head for the votes in the PASO, with the balance in favor of the Union for the Homeland (UxP) candidate. For his part, the internal opposition would be won by Horacio Rodríguez Larretawho would beat her rival Patricia Bullrich by a difference of three points.
The survey was carried out between July 1 and 6 in person at 1,280 citizens over 16 years of age from all over the country, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7%.
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When analyzing the voting intention of the respondents, the most chosen space was Together for Change (JxC) with 29.7%, followed by UxP with 27.1%. In third place is La Libertad Avanza (LLA), adding 24.5%.
According to the consultant’s analysis, these results reaffirm the thesis of “consolidated thirds”, which “enjoys good health to date.”
However, when broken down by pre-candidates, the first place was occupied by Sergio Massa, followed closely by Javier Milei.
In this sense, the pro-government candidate accumulated 25.1% of the votes, while the libertarian 24.5%, which means a difference of less than one point between the two.
The analysis maintained that it is “a possible scenario” that the Massa-Rossi formula is the most voted on an individual level, “but that it will require great efforts and avoid economic and discursive missteps in the remaining weeks.”
Regarding Milei’s candidacy, “it doesn’t seem to have suffered too much after weeks of internal and external scandals.”
“Its third did not decrease, although it can be said that it has stopped growing. We see in its electoral space a hard core of identity (…) We believe that it is prudent to say that any fall of the Libertarian candidate is rather discreet,” added the consultant.
In third place was Horacio Rodríguez Larreta with 16.4%. That way, the Buenos Aires head of government would win the internship against his rival Patricia Bullrich, who accumulated 13.3%. “In Together for Change, the primary continues to appear in this line of analysis as very competitive, with Horacio Rodríguez Larreta maintaining a slight advantage over Patricia Bullrich at the national level,” the report described.
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Juan Schiaretti, a candidate for Hacemos por Nuestro País (HNP), was ranked fifth behind the former Minister of Security with 3.5%. He followed Myriam Bregman from the Left Front and Workers-Unit (FIT-U) with 2.1%, Juan Grabois (UxP) with 2%, Guillermo Moreno by Principles and Values (PV) with 0.6% and, lastly, gabriel solano (FIT-U) con el 0,2%.
For his part, 8.6% said they did not know who to vote for, while 2.3% indicated that they would vote blank. In addition, 0.8% explained that they would not stand for the elections.
The scenario in the province of Buenos Aires
In addition to carrying out an analysis at the national level, the consultancy also carried out a survey only in the province of Buenos Aires. In this case, we surveyed in person 700 citizens older than 16 years, with a margin of error of +/- 3.7%.
Unlike the national results, when analyzing the numbers by space, UxP ranked first with 35.6%. JxC came in a close second with 34.2%.
In the Buenos Aires survey, the Massa-Rossi formula was the most chosen by a wide advantage. In this regard, the pro-government candidate accumulated 32.2%. For her part, Milei was in second place with 19.2%.
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Like the national poll, Larreta would be the winner of the internal opposition accumulating 19% of the votes. In this scenario, Bullrich would add 15.2%.
Buenos Aires residents were more inclined to elect Grabois, who was in fifth place with 3.4%. follows him Bregman with 1.8%, schiaretti with 0.7% and Moreno with 0.4%. Finally, Solano it was positioned last with 0.3%.
6.5% of those surveyed said they did not know who to vote for, while 1.1% indicated that they would vote blank. In addition, 0.2% specified that they would not go to the polls.
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