2023-11-18 22:47:00
1. The streets of San Francisco
The collaboration, communion of interests, governance pact, call it what you want, between the Executive and Congress, was intended to be sealed on Tuesday with an invitation to San Francisco that was irresistible for 5 congressmen: Alejandro Cavero of Avanza País, Lady Camones of APP, Elizabeth Medina from the Magisterial Block, Wilson Soto from AP and Jorge Marticorena from Perú Bicentenario. The first told me that they traveled on the presidential plane but stayed in a different hotel than Dina. And he voted – remotely – in favor of censuring Vicente Romero. Camones voted against it along with her APP bench. Medina did so against the majority of an accommodating Magisterial Block that had already forgotten Pedro Castillo. In other words, there is no defined pact, but rather a bid for who gets the most out of the relationship between powers without compromising in the attempt. In these efforts, the ‘Country Block’ (FP, APP, Avanza, Renovación and, sometimes, Somos); was divided. According to what Fernando Rospigliosi told me, Fuerza Popular also received an invitation to San Francisco, but they decided not to accept it.
READ ALSO | Congress censures the Minister of the Interior, Vicente Romero: How the groups voted and the details of the debate
By adding the invitation to San Francisco with the appointment of Foreign Minister Javier González Olaechea, celebrated by the congressional right; It seemed that the government could cause a change in the correlation of votes to save Romero’s head. It was not so. The trips are not serving to win votes with miles. Regarding traveling and bilateral photos, this time the presidential office and the chancellery, cured of horror, chose not to boast about anything they were not sure of. In this way, we found out what was happening, until the closing in which Boluarte sat next to Biden receiving the baton from his hands. “We are going to promote the economies and spend some time in Peru,” Biden said. There was a bilateral meeting with Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, and others with the Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore, which we found out about after it happened.
In reality, the president could not flaunt her remote status, when she had a minister in attendance and approval ratings were at rock bottom (11% according to the latest Datum survey for El Comercio) and with a hot feature in the latest Ipsos Peru survey: while in socioeconomic level A it has 26% approval, in sector B and in the other levels it has 12% or less. This could indicate a kind of elitization with unpredictable consequences. Add that Dina wants to make a 6th trip, to the inauguration of Ecuadorian Daniel Noboa next Thursday the 23rd.
The President of the Republic, Dina Boluarte, participated in the retreat of APEC Economic Leaders and the transfer of the APEC presidency from the United States to Peru. (Photo: Presidency)
/ JHONEL RODRIGUEZ ROBLES
2. If you don’t believe me, I don’t grow
The motto of CADE 61, ‘believe again to grow again’, placed the emphasis (without much fuss) on the shock of confidence that is needed as much or more urgently than the shock of investments or incentives for them. But Prime Minister Alberto Otárola had a hard time grasping the subtlety and breadth of the motto. He went to the inauguration and made 7 ministers available to explain reactivation and unlocking measures. That is, the discourse is limited to short- or medium-term measures; but it does not cover that socio-political dimension of trust to which it alludes – the president of IPAE and organizer of CADE, Gonzalo Galdos, stressed it to me – the slogan.
In fact, the Minister of the Economy, since he admitted that we were in recession, went into a frenetic series of announcements that seemed to contradict what he had admitted. This supports the thesis that he did it not just out of frankness but as an alarm to ensure parliamentary approval of the supplementary credit for the budget for 2024. At CADE, like Otárola and half the cabinet, Contreras listed the measures of the United Plan as For example, the tripling of the amount of the Impulso MyPeru program of S/. 5 billion to S/.15 billion. It is not clear that what the business community is asking for is a government that is more credible in its leadership, in its planning, in its ability to reconcile and reduce the conflict in a polarized country.
3. I censor you because I am insecure
The censure of Romero opened a crack in the congressional majority. APP confirmed its support for the government while FP voted disciplinedly against Romero, despite the history, in previous governments, of the political cost of censorship creating instability. What is not clear – since improvisation is seen in one power and another – is whether the government will look for a minister to flatter the majority, as it did when appointing Javier González-Olaechea as chancellor. Orange and perulibrist irony, since motions of censure came from both sides.
If both benches, from their trenches with coincidences and a shared board of directors, wanted to distance themselves from the government and hold it responsible for the insecurity crisis, now they will see signs to commit them in what comes next. It will be impossible to find a minister who pleases both the right and the left. The government is betting on flattering the first side despite the fact that, in its overflow of excesses and legislative interests, it will not stop short when the government does not give it an amen. They have approved, in the first legislature, bicameralism with parliamentary re-election. In fact, they are two constructive reforms, although they seem like a mere desire to stay, a vain illusion for the current congressmen, since the electorate tends to seek a drastic change in the cast.
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