A structural deficit lower than expected, says Girard

Quebec’s structural deficit will be lower than expected, said Finance Minister Eric Girard on Monday, who does not rule out a faster return to balanced budgets.



Eric Girard made his traditional appearance in front of journalists to show off a new pair of shoes, on the eve of the tabling of the 2022-2023 budget on Tuesday.


© Alexandre Robillard Le Devoir
Eric Girard made his traditional appearance in front of journalists to show off a new pair of shoes, on the eve of the tabling of the 2022-2023 budget on Tuesday.

Mr. Girard expects the structural deficit to be below the $3 billion mark for 2022-2023. A year ago, the Minister predicted in his last budget that the structural deficit, which does not take into account factors related to the economic situation, would exceed $6 billion. “The economy “performed” very well in 2021, an exceptional performance, said the minister. Quebec did better than Canada, the United States and Ontario. »

On the eve of the tabling of the 2022-2023 budget, this Tuesday in Quebec City, Mr. Girard made his traditional appearance in front of journalists to show off a new pair of shoes. The Minister has chosen a racing model this year.

“These are performance shoes, like the Quebec economy,” he said.

Already, last fall, Mr. Girard had indicated that the structural deficit was lower than expected for the year 2021-2022. It had settled at 3 billion rather than 4 billion.

On Monday, Mr. Girard did not provide information on the expected level of the budget deficit for the coming year, which he will reveal in his budget documents on Tuesday. Last November, this figure had also been scaled down compared to the forecast established eight months earlier in the budget, going from 12.3 billion to 6.8 billion, for the year 2021-2022.

Keep the direction

Parading in his new shoes, Mr. Girard maintained that the return to a balanced budget was expected in 2027-2028. Despite everything, he did not rule out the possibility that the zero deficit objective would be reached more quickly.

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“When we say 2027-2028, it is possible that we will reach equilibrium a year before, two years before, he said. We still have a high degree of uncertainty. There is the pandemic, theinvasion de l’Ukraine by Russia. We have a prudent financial framework, we are staying on course for 2027-2028. »

The Minister estimated that the risks of recession are currently 25%, more than in normal times. “The likelihood of more difficult scenarios has increased,” he said. It may be a bigger economic downturn than expected. »

Last week, Prime Minister François Legault did not rule out the possibility that tax cuts would be promised during the next election campaign.

The government has signaled for some weeks that Tuesday’s budget would contain fight against inflationup due to the pandemic and the Ukrainian conflict.

Mr. Legault has pledged to give Quebecers a check for a “single amount” to compensate for the increase in the cost of living for the current year.

Details to come

Details on the amount and the number of people who will benefit from it will be revealed tomorrow, said Mr. Girard. “We are looking to make a more general application measure,” he said, referring to a first round of checks sent last fall to 3.3 million people also to fight against inflation.

Already, Mr. Girard had explained that his inflation forecasts had been revised upwards since last fall. On Tuesday, he indicated that his economic growth forecast of 6.5% for 2021-2022 would be revised downwards in his budget presented on Tuesday.

Once again, Mr. Girard denied having prepared an electoral budget with this latest plan by the general election in October. The Minister assured that the vision expressed in his budget goes beyond the next election.

“People need help with the rising cost of living, the unexpected rise,” he said. We need to show that we manage well, to continue to manage public finances well. There will be money for the main missions, including health. »

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