They are barely twenty. Yet the small group of radical Republicans who block Kevin McCarthy’s appointment as the new Speaker of the House of Representatives want to exert a lot of influence. It is indicative of the polarization within American parties. ‘The unit seems difficult to take back,’ says political scientist and America expert Koen Petersen.
What do you think the political spectacle of recent days says?
“There is a lack of willingness to compromise. The American political system functions badly because of great polarization. Democrats and Republics don’t give each other the light in the eye – that is well known. But the discussion within the two parties is also becoming more intense. What you see now is that the Republicans have the majority in the House of Representatives. That includes twenty dissident votes, which could cause the vote to nominate Kevin McCarthy as the new Speaker of the House to be suspended several times. The remaining 198 are mostly Republicans, but they don’t have the majority (the House has 435 members, AB). They will not get there without the support of those twenty.”
What is the purpose of the Republican sleepers?
“They want to be able to impose their will on Congress, even if they are a small group. Think about legislation term limits: how many times can a member of Congress be re-elected? And there are leftist programs against which they want to enforce legislation.”
“They also want influence: representatives in certain prominent positions. And then there is Ukraine. The majority of Republicans and Democrats are in favor of supporting that country, but this group is more skeptical and wants more scrutiny of money for Ukraine. They want all these guarantees from the new chairman. They call Kevin McCarthy too flexible and too compromised. “
Can peace return to the party after such a conflict?
“The unit seems difficult to take back. This is also a problem with the Democrats. Where we have different parties here on the left and right, in the US they are all under one umbrella. There is no party discipline, because every politician must be able to look his own voters in the eye. If you’re a team player and say, “I’ll vote with my party,” your voters may see you as too accommodating or not principled enough. Then you will lose your job at the next election. The contradictions in the US have sharpened in recent years. Social media pokes that polarization even further, so that the willingness to support each other even a little is less.”
“We’ve seen similar political discussions before, but it’s not common for parties to have such a thin majority in the House. The moment you have a majority of 40 seats, you can easily handle 20 dissidents. Because of the thin majority, every renegade vote counts. You also saw this last year with plans from Biden that fell with one dissident Democrat in the Senate.”
Is there a chance of a split within the Republican party if this continues?
“That could happen when the circumstances are right, but I don’t see a third party emerging right away. The two-party system is deeply rooted in the US. It is difficult to put something next to it structurally. If you are independent, you have to do everything yourself. It is difficult to compete with two parties that established are, at all levels of politics.”
How damaging is this political theater to democracy in the US?
“It is not an advertisement for politicians. You could already see with the rise of Trump that he attracted many dissatisfied voters who felt abandoned by politics. The country is facing serious problems. High energy bills, inflation, the economy is stagnating, there are large rounds of layoffs at companies. Worse times are coming. Those who voted want parliamentarians to find solutions to those problems. Not that they are preoccupied with themselves all the time. Citizens who are impatiently waiting for politicians to act will watch these discussions about posts with gritted teeth.”
How is the Republican Party doing now?
“If you look at it rosy, the party was doomed in the Obama era. It was the party of the middle-aged white man. That group is shrinking as diversity in the US rises. The electorate is dying out, was the image. Trump has reached out to the poorer, working American. And so those votes were taken away from the Democrats. He has made the Republicans viable again: they are growing again.”
“The pessimistic view is that the party is split between conservatives and moderates, and Trump supporters versus traditional Republicans. Trump’s influence is diminishing somewhat, but he is still an important factor. The chance of division in the party is greater than before. A divided party with a small minority makes itself very vulnerable.”
Do you dare to make a political prediction about the US for 2023?
“In November 2024 there will be elections in the US. After each election, the campaign for the next one immediately begins. This means that everything that is happening now is also happening because politicians and campaign workers are already looking at the election next year. I predict that you will see a lot of behavior that does not directly serve the common sense of 2023, but should mainly be seen in the context of elections in 2024.”