Alternative for Germany (AfD) exit polls indicate the right-wing extremist party is set to capture 44.5% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, positioning the organization within reach of a historic victory in German state politics.
Electoral Impact and Political Fallout
The electoral breakthroughs have dealt a severe blow to Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s governing coalition, arriving with just a year remaining before the next federal election. Scholz described the outcome as “bitter” in a public statement.
“All democratic parties are now called upon to form stable governments without right-wing extremists,” Scholz said. “Our country cannot and must not get used to this. The AfD is damaging Germany. It is weakening the economy, dividing society and ruining our country’s reputation.”
Addressing the broader landscape, Scholz urged mainstream political factions to apply the European principle of the “cordon sanitaire” to isolate the AfD from governing coalitions in Saxony and Thuringia.
Meanwhile, Alice Weidel, co-leader of the AfD, characterized the results during an appearance on German public broadcaster ARD as a “requiem” for Scholz’s administration, questioning whether the federal government can continue to govern at all. Speaking at a campaign rally in Erfurt, Thuringia, Weidel criticized federal border policies to a crowd chanting “deport, deport.”
“Instead of racking our brains over the various models of knife bans, we mu,” Weidel stated, pointing directly to national immigration management following a fatal stabbing incident in Solingen involving a Syrian suspect.
Rise of Alternative Factions and Mainstream Shifts
The vote also saw major gains for the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a newly founded far-left party established earlier this year. The BSW captured third place in both Thuringia and Saxony, drawing voters through a platform that questions Germany’s support for Ukraine while mirroring aspects of the AfD’s anti-immigration stance.
Concurrently, Chancellor Scholz’s center-left SPD coalition slumped to a distant fifth place in both states. Recent federal polls indicate that if national elections were held immediately, the AfD could position itself as the second-largest group in the Bundestag, with the SPD trailing in third.
Founded in 2013 in opposition to eurozone bailouts, the AfD shifted its focus heavily toward immigration following the 2015 refugee crisis, when then-Chancellor Angela Merkel permitted more than 1 million refugees—primarily fleeing the civil war in Syria—into the country.
Johannes Kiess, a sociologist at the University of Leipzig specializing in far-right extremism, noted to CNN that East Germany harbors a deep anti-political sentiment rooted in the transformative socio-economic shifts of the 1990s following the collapse of communism. This dynamic has left an opening for anti-establishment political movements in the region, where economic growth and opportunities remain more constrained compared to western states.
Institutional Response and Coalition Dynamics
Should other regional parties heed Chancellor Scholz’s call to shun the AfD, the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU)—projected to win first place in Saxony and second in Thuringia—stands to play a central role in forming regional governments.
However, the political climate reflects a noticeable rightward shift across the traditional spectrum. The CDU itself has adopted a significantly stricter stance on immigration than it maintained under Angela Merkel’s tenure.
