2024-04-09 23:02:22
The endless decline in computer sales lasted two years. It ended in the first quarter, according to estimates from IDC. Between January and March, manufacturers delivered 59.8 million devices to distributors, an increase of 1.5% compared to last year. This level is similar to the pre-Covid period, but still very far from the peaks affected during the health crisis – in the first quarter of 2021, 84.8 million computers had been sold. First hoped for at the start of the school year, the market rebound took a few more months to come. And its scale still remains limited. This represents, despite everything, a relief for the entire sector, which is hoping for greater growth in the second half of the year, in particular with the announced arrival of “AI PCs”.
Catch-up effect – Although it was spectacular, the fall in the market (-16.5% in 2022 and -13.9% in 2023, according to IDC) must be nuanced. Because it is partly explained by a catch-up effect. With the generalization of teleworking and distance learning, computer sales rebounded strongly in 2020 and 2021, putting an end to nearly ten years of decline. And returning to their 2012 level. The improvement in the health situation has mechanically reduced sales, both among individuals and businesses. At the same time, the economic context has accentuated the sector’s difficulties, between soaring inflation and fear of a possible recession. Other electronic devices, notably smartphones, have experienced a similar decline in sales.
Replacement cycle – These headwinds are starting to dissipate. After two years of decline, the basis of comparison is now much more favorable for showing quarters of growth. And the economic situation has improved, even if it continues to weigh, particularly in China. Other elements should encourage the rebound in sales. Distributors reduced their excess inventory, which pushed them to lower their orders from manufacturers. Above all, the fleet replacement cycle should accelerate. “Companies are starting to replace computers purchased during the pandemic,” underlines Jitesh Ubrani, analyst at IDC. Additionally, the upcoming end of Windows 10 support will result in a “large-scale transition to Windows 11”, predicts Ishan Dutt, from Canalys
Generative AI – Computer manufacturers, like those of smartphones, are also banking heavily on the launch of new models, equipped with processors powerful enough to run certain generative artificial intelligence services locally – such as a new application from Microsoft known by the code name AI Explorer. These “AI PCs”, as the Windows designer calls them, represent “an essential innovation”, in a sector which is sorely lacking, believes Ishan Dutt, which could encourage users to replace their old machine. Canalys estimates that 50 million units should be sold this year, or 18% of the market. In 2028, their sales are expected to reach 200 million. Another reason for optimism: “AI PCs” could allow manufacturers to increase prices by 10 to 15%.
For further:
– Samsung launches the wave of smartphones powered by generative AI
– Nvidia aims to compete with Intel in the CPU market
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