Attijari Global Research (AGR) has revised down its forecast for USD/MAD over the next 3 months, taking into account forecasts for EUR/USD and liquidity spreads on the foreign exchange market.
“The dirham would appreciate against the US dollar at horizons of 1, 2 and 3 months, ie during the summer period. Indeed, we anticipate an improvement in the foreign exchange position during this period”, indicates AGR in its note “Weekly Mad Insights – Currencies”, covering the period from May 16 to 20, 2022.
“Following the easing of health restrictions, we should see an increase in foreign exchange receipts thanks to the improvement in Travel receipts and MRE receipts”, adds AGR, noting that these should support more favorable liquidity conditions. on the interbank foreign exchange market and strengthen the dirham until August, in particular thanks to the “Marhaba” operation.
The target levels of the USD/MAD parity stand at 9.86, 9.76 and 9.76 at horizons of 1, 2 and 3 months against a spot rate of 10.02. Against the euro, the dirham should depreciate over the same horizons.
The target levels of the EUR/MAD parity stand at 10.45, 10.35 and 10.35 at horizons 1, 2 and 3 months against a spot rate of 10.60, notes AGR.