Jerusalem – A decades-long agreement governing prayer at the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, considered one of the most sensitive religious sites in the world, is reported to have collapsed, prompting warnings of potential widespread unrest. The shift comes amid escalating tensions, a series of arrests and increasing access for Jewish settlers, raising concerns about a potential ignition point for further conflict in the region.
The agreement, established after the 1967 Six-Day War, has traditionally allowed only Muslim worshipers to pray within the Al-Haram al-Sharif, as the compound is known to Muslims. To Jews, the site is known as the Temple Mount, revered as the location of their ancient temples. Recent actions by Israeli authorities, coupled with the actions of far-right groups, are challenging this long-held status quo, a change experts say is deeply destabilizing.
The situation reached a critical point this week with the detention of Sheikh Mohammed al-Abbasi, the imam of Al-Aqsa, and a police raid during evening prayers on the first night of Ramadan, according to the Palestinian news agency Wafa and social media reports. These actions, carried out by the Jerusalem police and the Shin Bet internal security force, now under far-right leadership, represent a significant rupture in the established order.
“Al-Aqsa is a detonator,” said Daniel Seidemann, a Jerusalem lawyer who advises governments on issues related to the city. “It’s usually around the same thing – a real or perceived threat to the integrity of sacred space. And that’s what we’re witnessing. The West Bank is a tinderbox.”
Escalating Tensions and Changes to Access
Tensions have been steadily rising around the Al-Aqsa Mosque as far-right Israelis have gained influence in key security positions. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who has eight prior criminal convictions, including for supporting a terrorist organization and inciting racism, has openly advocated for raising the Israeli flag at the compound and constructing a synagogue there. He has also made several inflammatory visits to the site over the past year.
In January, Ben-Gvir appointed Maj Gen Avshalom Peled as the Jerusalem police chief, and with the backing of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, allowed Jewish individuals to bring printed prayer sheets onto the site – a clear violation of the existing status quo, according to Seidemann. Previously, police strictly prevented any form of prayer by non-Muslims within the compound. “These measures are displays of ‘we’re in control here, get used to it or get out of the way’,” Seidemann stated.
Further exacerbating the situation, the Jerusalem Waqf, the Jordanian-appointed foundation responsible for managing the Al-Aqsa site, has faced increasing pressure. Sources within the Waqf report that five staff members have been placed in administrative detention by the Shin Bet, although 38 have been banned from entering the site. Six imams have also been denied access. Waqf offices have reportedly been ransacked, and repairs and improvements to the site – including the installation of shelters and clinics – have been blocked.
The Palestinian-run Jerusalem governorate reported slightly different figures, stating that 25 Waqf staff members have been banned and four detained. Neither the Jerusalem police nor the Shin Bet have responded to requests for comment on these allegations.
Ramadan Restrictions and Potential for Wider Conflict
In the lead-up to Ramadan, the police extended the morning visiting hours for Jews and tourists from three to five hours, another unilateral change to the status quo. On Thursday, approximately 400 settlers entered the compound and reportedly sang, danced, and prayed aloud.
Amjad Iraqi, a senior Israel/Palestine analyst at the International Crisis Group, warned that “there are so many ingredients that make this Ramadan especially dangerous.” He noted that while last year was relatively calm, this year’s confluence of factors on both the Israeli and Palestinian sides could incentivize activists to seek further alterations to the status quo.
Iraqi also pointed to a shift in Israeli policy, stating, “If in the past the Israeli government felt compelled to engage with regional powers, today they care much less about what they have to say and think.” He added, “There has been a diffusion of impunity… Israelis have been able to accomplish a lot outside of the constraints they thought existed politically, militarily and diplomatically.”
The current situation echoes past instances where changes to the status quo at Al-Aqsa have triggered widespread violence. The visit of Ariel Sharon to the Temple Mount in 2000 is widely seen as a catalyst for the Second Intifada, and Hamas cited perceived Israeli violations at the mosque as a justification for its October 2023 attack on Israel, which resulted in the deaths of 1,200 Israelis and the ongoing war in Gaza.
As Ramadan progresses, the situation at Al-Aqsa remains highly volatile. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the current escalation can be contained or whether it will spiral into a wider conflict. Continued monitoring of access restrictions, police actions, and the activities of extremist groups will be essential.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates.
