an AI can predict risk ten years in advance

2023-11-16 13:00:14

THE ESSENTIAL

  • Artificial intelligence is capable of predicting the risk of myocardial infarction ten years in advance.
  • It uses information about the fat around the arteries, the narrowing of the arteries and other cardiac information.
  • According to researchers, this could reduce heart attacks by 20% and deaths by 8%.

12,000 people die of a myocardial infarction each year in France. A major innovation could reduce this figure. Researchers at the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom have developed artificial intelligence capable of predicting the risk of myocardial infarction over ten years.

Heart attack: “small, undetectable strictures can break if there is inflammation”

Every year in the UK, around 350,000 people have a heart scan – the standard test to identify any narrowing or blockages in the coronary arteriesexplain the authors in a press release. In about three-quarters of cases, there are no clear signs of significant stricture, so patients are often reassured and discharged. Unfortunately, many of these people will die in the future from heart attacks, because small, undetectable narrowings can rupture in inflammation, blocking the arteries.” Until recently, it was not possible to identify these patients at risk.

An AI capable of identifying early risk factors for myocardial infarction

This recent work could remedy this. Funded by the British Heart Foundation, the study analyzed data from more than 40,000 people who had routine heart scans at eight UK hospitals. Participants were followed for a median of 2.7 years. While those with significant narrowings of the coronary arteries were more likely to experience serious cardiac events or die, twice as many patients without significant narrowing suffered a heart attack or cardiac death over this period, the researchers note. . The team then used a new artificial intelligence tool: it was trained to analyze information about changes in fat around inflamed arteries, which can indicate the risk of events such as heart attacks as well as information on narrowing of arteries and other clinical risk factors. “Further testing on an additional 3,393 patients over a period of 7.7 years revealed that this tool could independently and accurately predict the risk of cardiac events.”note British scientists.


A 20% reduction in heart attacks thanks to this artificial intelligence

Among those who had no blockages in their arteries, those with the highest levels of inflammation in their blood vessels had a more than 10 times higher risk of cardiac death than those with lower levels of inflammation. In a test of 744 patients, the risk scores generated led to improved treatment for 45% of the group. “AI technology could potentially save the lives of thousands of people suffering from chest pain, who may not have been identified as being at risk of heart attack and therefore may not have received appropriate treatment to reduce their risk.estimate the researchers.

According to their estimates, this tool could lead to a reduction of more than 20% in heart attacks and 8% in cardiac deaths and strokes, among people undergoing the test. “Too many people die needlessly from heart attacks every year. recalls Professor Charalambos Antoniades, director of this research. It is essential that we harness the potential of AI to guide patient treatment (…). We hope that this technology will be deployed (…) and help save the lives of thousands of people each year who might otherwise go untreated.”

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