9th anniversary of victory in World War II
Prospects of Putin’s internal and external propaganda
All-out war and total mobilization order, Mrs. Russia
“Early victory in the East, a safe choice”
[천지일보=이솜 기자] When Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that his troops were conducting “special military operations” rather than war. Recently, speculation has grown that this operation may change. Western government officials expect Putin to officially declare war on Ukraine on the 9th, a symbolic day for Russia.
There is also the possibility of declaring victory over eastern Ukraine or annexing occupied eastern and southern territories. Pope Francis said during a recent meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban that Russia planned to end the war today. The Russian government has dismissed the possibility of declaring an all-out war, but in the end, it seems that everything will not be known until the 9th. Russia has previously denied plans to invade.
May 9th, known as ‘Victory Day’ in Russia, is the anniversary of the victory in World War II in 1945 and Victory Day to commemorate the defeat of the Nazis. A parade is held in Moscow, where Russian leaders traditionally stand in front of the tomb of Russian communist leader Vladimir Lenin on Red Square to watch. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on the same day that a military parade will be held in 28 Russian cities, mobilizing 65,000 personnel and 460 aircraft.
James Nixey, head of the Chatham House Russia-Eurasia program, told CNN on the 4th (local time) that “May 9th is meant to show off to the domestic crowd, intimidate the opposition and please the dictator of his time.” . Western officials have long seen Putin use the day’s symbolic meaning and propaganda value to announce military achievements in Ukraine or escalation of major battles. It seems that President Putin attaches great importance to the symbolism of the anniversary, and this invasion was also carried out the day after the ‘Day of Defense of the Fatherland (February 23)’.
◆“Possibility of declaration of war and martial law”
First, there is an observation that an official declaration of war and a general mobilization order may be issued.
British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said in an interview with LBC Radio that President Putin would use this opportunity to redefine what he calls a special military operation into war, and that it is likely to issue a national mobilization order to make up for military losses.
However, Russian political analyst Oleg Ignatov said, “Declaring an all-out war is the most difficult scenario.
According to Nixie, the Russian army has lost at least 15,000 soldiers from the beginning of the war and will need more soldiers to achieve its goal in Ukraine. However, the military mobilization this time means that it will admit that the invasion of Ukraine is not going as planned. In addition, the mobilization ordinance could also damage the already struggling Russian economy, Ignatov said.
For many Russians, a ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine is still considered a distant conflict, and the mobilization order may cause social chaos. Levada, an independent polling agency, found last month that 39 percent of Russians show little interest in the issue. Andrei Kutunov, director of the Russian Council on International Affairs, told the New York Times on the same day, “It is different from watching it on TV.
“President Putin can enact a mobilization law without declaring war,” Ignatov said.
The Russian government has denied the allegation of an all-out war. According to Russian state news agency TASS, Kremlin spokeswoman Dmitry Peskov said at a press conference on the same day that the possibility of an all-out war was “not true at all” and that it was not worth it.
A commemorative event in the occupied territory of Ukraine
If Putin does not declare war, other ways may be found to celebrate Victory Day. There are speculations that it could annex the Luhansk and Donetsk regions in eastern Ukraine, push Odessa in the south, or declare complete occupation of the port city of Mariupol in the south. There are also signs that the southeastern city of Kherson is declaring a ‘People’s Republic’ and plans to annex it.
Valery Shuty, a visiting assistant professor at the Center for Russian, Eastern European and Eurasian Studies at the University of Kansas, told the New York Times that President Putin would choose the “safest option” and could declare an early victory in the eastern Donbas region.
“He (Putin) will be able to declare that the Russians have won some victories in Ukraine,” Ignatov said. “He can use this date to solidify his support.” But it is difficult to predict what Russia and its president will do, Ignatov added.
The Ukrainian government warned on the 9th that Russia’s Victory Day celebrations would be held in occupied areas such as Mariupol. Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Agency said Russians are clearing up bodies and debris to make the center of Mariupol a center for celebrations.
With Russian state media describing the fighting in Ukraine as an unfinished event of World War II, it seems almost certain that Putin will try to inspire Russians to make new sacrifices in his May 9 speech.
State Department spokeswoman Ned Price said on Monday that “there is good reason to believe that Russia will do everything it can use it for propaganda purposes.”
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