Analysis of Andreas Wellinger’s Performance in Ski Jumping Competition at Bischofshofen: Lessons for Improvement and Outlook for Final Round

2024-01-05 22:43:00

Andreas Wellinger didn’t worry about his sleep before Epiphany. “I slept like a baby last night. That should work tonight too,” he told Eurosport at the foot of the Paul-Außerleitner-Schanze in Bischofshofen.

Bad for Wellinger: Ryoyu Kobayashi easily and easily grabbed the victory and goes into Saturday confidently. Wellinger’s Japanese competitor, who is 4.8 points ahead of the German in the tour rankings after three of four competitions (overall ranking), jumped a whopping ten meters further and thus won the winner’s check for 3,000 Swiss francs (3,225 euros).

So that Kobayashi doesn’t also grab the Golden Eagle and the 100,000 francs (107,500 euros) prize for the tournament winner on Epiphany, Wellinger has to correct a few mistakes in his jump. “For tomorrow it’s: bring in more lightness, more flow – and then hit the edge better,” said the 2018 normal hill Olympic champion.

Kobayashi sails away from Wellinger – the highlights of the qualification

Wellinger had particular problems with the timing at the take-off table. Maybe he should “stop by IKEA and get a longer table,” joked the Oberstdorf winner on “ARD”. But that alone certainly doesn’t do it.

The real duels from Bischofshofen.

1.) Wellinger against the take-off table

Once again it wasn’t the speed: Wellinger drove 1.1 km/h faster than Kobayashi in the qualification, so he actually had the right speed. However, something went wrong for the German during the jump.

“The idea was right, but I just completely missed the take-off table,” he said in the best ski jumping jargon. What he meant by that: After the messed up first training jump (128 m) and a good second one (138 m), Wellinger had concentrated in the qualifying round on an approach position that was slightly more forward “from the shoulder line”, but the jump was ” “Five meter” missed.

What can definitely happen on the long, flat approach to the Paul Ausserleitner ski jump built into the slope. “The take-off table is tricky,” said Karl Geiger. “You wait, wait, wait and suddenly he’s there – it’s not that easy,” said Stefan Kraft.

“It was a working day,” said Wellinger, immediately checking off his qualifying jump: “It was a bit wooden, but that doesn’t mean anything.”

But Wellinger still has to do some homework before Saturday. “I have the impression that it’s more than just the timing,” Martin Schmitt analyzed for Eurosport: “That doesn’t amount to ten meters. I also think his approach position is a tad too high.” The transition to the flight phase also didn’t work smoothly.

The following now applies to the DSV team: “Work well, analyze well and start the day with clear instructions. Then things should look completely different in the test run,” said Schmitt. Ideally, Wellinger will be beaming after the competition as the first German winner since Sven Hannawald in 2002. One thing is clear, however: “Andi will need a brilliant performance to keep up with the Japanese,” said Eurosport expert Werner Schuster.

Take-off too late: Wellinger misses meters in qualifying

2.) Kobayashi against the weather

What Ryoyu Kobayashi showed on Friday in Bischofshofen was already worthy of a tour winner: 140 meters in the first test round, easily skipping the second jump, then 138 meters in the qualification – with two playfully easy round victories, the Japanese proved more than prepared for the duel Wellinger. “Boy, don’t get your hopes up – that’s the message he sent,” said an impressed Schuster as a co-commentator on the Eurosport broadcast.

Wellinger had a similar view: “He is one of the best ski jumpers ever and you have to acknowledge that without envy. He is the clear favorite, he proved that today.” What could still stop the Japanese would be capricious weather – precipitation is forecast in Bischofshofen for Epiphany, rain that could easily turn into snow in the afternoon. The ski jumper likes to talk about difficult conditions.

The fact that 15 other jumpers between Wellinger and Kobayashi had to come off the beam in the first round on Saturday could tip the scales. “It’s going to be a very exciting day,” national coach Stefan Horngacher said excitedly. If Kobayashi is slowed down a bit by a track that is getting wetter and possibly even covered in snow, Wellinger could get into pole position before the final round. “He’s been fast all season, and that will play into his hands tomorrow with the weather that’s forecast,” hopes Schmitt.

Confident qualifying victory! Kobayashi with announcement before the tour finale

There are only 4.8 points that separate the two, 2.67 meters – little for a hill with hill size 142. In the history of the tour there have been eleven times in the history of the tour where the leader was less than five points ahead of the last tour. Jumping drove. The leader took overall victory six times, and another jumper won five times. Wellinger could make it 6:6.

However, if Kobayashi brings his lead home on Saturday, he would draw level with Kamil Stoch (Poland), Helmut Recknagel (Germany) and Björn Wirkola (Norway) with three overall victories – and ski jumping greats such as Matti Nykänen (Finland), Andreas Goldberger and Gregor Schlierenzauer ( both Austria/all two wins).

Janne Ahonen’s record (Finland/five tour victories) would then be just two more titles away – no longer unthinkable for the 27-year-old, who doesn’t seem to worry about such mental games.

In any case, the Japanese once again only allowed himself to be carried away with a few scraps of words on Friday. “It’s special here, but I like it,” said the Bischofshofen winner from 2019 and 2022, which meant he secured the tour victory twice: “The jumps were good, especially the second one.” Said it, and went away in a good mood.

3.) Strength against the disappointment of the tour

If everything goes back to normal on Epiphany, Kobayashi and Wellinger will win the tour between themselves. Behind them, the Germans Pius Paschke and Karl Geiger – already World Cup winners this season – would have liked to get involved in the fight for the podium, but they didn’t find their way well in Garmisch-Partenkirchen and Innsbruck. Both could only be partially satisfied with 14th and 17th place in the qualification for Bischofshofen.

Celebrating fist on the run: Geiger gains new self-confidence

The last few days have also been disappointing for Stefan Kraft: after five wins from eight World Cup competitions before the tour, the overall winner from 2014/15 was favored, but fell after third place in Oberstdorf due to weaker performances in Garmisch-Partenkirchen (6th) and Innsbruck (6th). ) back in the overall standings. “The tour was unfortunate for him,” summed up Eurosport expert Schuster: “He was always unlucky in the wind and made the wrong jump at the wrong time.”

So an Austrian three-way battle for the last place on the “Stockerl” has broken out: Innsbruck winner Jan Hörl (3rd) and Kraft (4th) are currently separated by 5.7 meters in the overall ranking, but Michael Hayböck (5th) also has it Still with a chance of third place, 13.9 meters behind Hörl.

In Bischofshofen, Kraft made people sit up and take notice again with second place in qualifying (134 m). However, it seems almost impossible that one of the ÖSV stars will make it to the top of the podium after qualifying and Kobayashi’s strong performance. Hörl went over the top in front of his home crowd and only ended up in eighth place with 129 meters, while Hayböck only came in 16th with the same distance.

Patience leads to success: Kraft shines in Bischofshofen qualification

So Kraft has to pull the Austrian coals out of the fire on Epiphany. The Pongauer would like to win the day and at least strengthen his lead in the overall World Cup. But the 30-year-old also knows: “Ryoyu is in fantastic shape, really strong. He’s the one you have to beat.”

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