2024-01-01 06:37:10
International oil prices are likely to remain close to $80 a barrel in 2024, a Archyde.com poll showed, with analysts expecting weak global economic growth to limit demand, while geopolitical tensions could provide support. , taken over by news.ro
Oil rigPhoto: Dan Bannister / ImageSource / Profimedia
Analysts question whether the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Allies (OPEC+) will be able to maintain production cuts to support the market.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, averaged around $82.17 a barrel in 2023, down 10% from 202222, as the strong US dollar, boosted by a financial environment with rates of high interest rates, and reduced demand from the top consumer, China had a negative effect.
A survey of 34 economists and analysts forecasts that Brent crude will average $82.56 in 2024, down from the November consensus of $84.43.
US crude oil will have an average price of $78.84 in 2024, according to analysts, who a month ago expected an average price of $80.50 per barrel.
“On the demand side, we don’t expect a big boost in the coming months. There is still a question mark behind the offer. There are many doubts (about whether) the OPEC+ alliance will be able to cut supply, as decided recently,” said Thomas Wybierek, analyst at NORD Landbk.
Last month, OPEC+ oil producers, led by Saudi Arabia, agreed to voluntarily cut oil production by another 2.2 million barrels per day by the start of next year.
In total, OPEC+ is reducing its production by approximately 6 million barrels per day, and its market share has fallen to 27%.
“While it is difficult to maintain cooperation with all OPEC+ members, at this time and at the price level, all members support higher oil prices,” said John Paisie, president of Stratas Advisors.
Also, the analysts interviewed said that geopolitical risks will keep oil prices volatile in the coming months.
“We believe there will be more concern about geopolitics in 2024 than in 2023 – and the associated risk premium will be substantially higher,” Paisie added.
Military clashes between Israel and Hamas have raised concerns that a wider conflict could affect supplies from the Middle East, the world’s largest oil-producing region. The latest attacks on ships in the Red Sea have caused fears of disruption to transport.
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